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Papa  Vox:
Life at the beginning of the Hundred Year Plague
plus oddball news and occasional commentary.
Archive of 2021 - 2022

December 13, 2022   SARS-CoV2 cases:
       deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
101,369,163 1,109,983 1.2%
  World: 
654,456,374 6,660,710 1.4%

And now, the Tripledemic is here: Local authorities in major cities urge indoor masking : NPR
 
Science:
Culture & Modern Life:
The Twitter Debacle:
The Corporate War on Humans:
Politics:
Law & Disorder:
October 29, 2022   SARS-CoV2 cases:
       deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
99,331,610 1,095,166 1.2%
  World: 
635,231,502 6,593,107 1.4%

Science:
History:
Have you ever wondered why women's clothing tends to not have pockets? There's a reason, and it's an ugly one: women historically did not need pockets, because they had no possessions.

Until very recently, women in America had second-class financial status. Women used to wear a Chatelaine (chain) - Wikipedia to carry a house key, which a trusting husband might, if he felt inclined, grant his wife. The Chatelaine also carried small sundries like a pair of scissors, a button hook, etc, which a husband might give to his wife, maybe, to show that they were actually hers -- because otherwise, anything a woman had on her person was, by definition, stolen from her husband. Women could not own any property, not even personal items.
Modern Life:
Culture:
Politics:
Law and Disorder:
July 30, 2022   SARS-CoV2 cases:
       deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
95,054,184 1,055,020 1.2%
  World: 
581,310,043 6,418,385 1.4%
  • 4 million: currently infected in the USA
  • 117,000: new cases per day, USA.
  • 70 days: most recent 50k deaths.
Science:
Re-breeding archaic horses and cows, before they are gone forever:
Cool chess stuff: 
Culture:
Modern Life:
Law and Disorder:
 The Kingdom Of Gilead: 
Politics:
May 27, 2022   SARS-CoV2 cases:
       deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
85,612,194 1,030,907 1.2%
  World: 
530,632,167 6,308,808 1.4%

The USA is still #1 for cases, deaths, and idiocy, twice as bad as #2 India.
And India has over 4 times as much population as the USA.
  • 10 days: most recent One Million New Cases in the US -- a massive uptick.
  • 109,000: new cases per day, USA.
  • 90 days: most recent 50k deaths.
Science:

Tech, Culture and Modern life:

Politics:

Law & Disorder:
March 23, 2022   SARS-CoV2 cases:
       deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
81,498,499 1,000,761 1.2%
  World: 
475,769,574 6,126,516 1.4%

The grim milestone: One Millions Deaths from Covid in the USA.
  • 28 days: most recent One Million New Cases -- the longest since July 2021.
  • 17 million: current active USA cases
  • 246,217: cases per million, USA.
  • 61,037: cases per million, World.
  • 37 days: most recent 50k deaths.
The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine:
Science and Tech:
Modern life and Culture:
Politics:
Law and Disorder:
February 24, 2022: so it's war, then.

This is pointless, criminal, and inhumane, the result of narcissistic and brutal leaders stoking their own egos, and mostly about oil and money. Just like Iraq, in other words. And likely to result in almost as many deaths.

February 24, 2022   SARS-CoV2 cases:
       deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
80,413,618 967,635 1.2%
  World: 
431, 376,133 5,943,755 1.4%

The USA continues to dwarf all other countries for Covid cases and deaths. We're Number One, in a bad way. And we will likely hit one million deaths before long -- except that the excess mortality rates indicate that we passed one million deaths months ago. Thankfully, it looks like January 13 was the USA peak for Omicron, for new cases. The Active Case and Daily Deaths peaks were both January 31, and those numbers remain very high.

Science and tech:
Culture and modern life:
Politics:
Law and Disorder:
February 7, 2022   SARS-CoV2 cases:
       deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
78,017,402 926,029 1.2%
  World: 
397,174,995 5,762,001 1.4%

  • 40 days: Estimated time, at current rate, when we reach One Million Deaths, USA. (editor's note: it was 42 days.)
  • 29 million: current active USA cases
Catching up to 2021:
Science and Tech:
 Culture and Modern Life:
Politics:
Law and Disorder:
Omicron:
December 29, 2021   SARS-CoV2 cases:
       deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
52,228,808 842,719 1.6%
  World: 
284,191,814 5,435,925 1.9%

USA will likely exceed one million deaths within about four months.
The current spike in new cases is still on a steep rise, with no flattening at all.
This is the fastest increase in new cases of the entire Global Pandemic.
Expect this spike to last about four months -- just like the last one.
  • 3 days: One Million New Cases, December 24, a new record
  • 4 months: How long the last rapid case spike lasted, November 2020 -- February 2021.
  • 12 million: current active USA cases
  • 225,659: cases per million, South Dakota.
  • 162,522: cases per million, USA.
  • 36,463: cases per million, World.
  • 19 out of 25: Red States in the upper half for cases per million people
  • 43 days: most recent 50k deaths.
Science and tech:
Culture:
Politics:
Law and Disorder:
November 12, 2021   SARS-CoV2 cases:
       deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
47,701,670 780,833 1.7%
  World: 
252,975,989 5,099,852 2.1%

Red State Governors compete to see how many citizens they can sacrifice:
  • 9.1 million: current active USA cases
  • 60 thousand: deaths in Florida.
  • 202,148: cases per million in North Dakota
  • 9 out of 10: Red States in the top ten for cases per million people
  • 38 days: most recent 50k deaths.
Science:
Culture:
Politics:
The Holy Republic Of Gilead:
Law and Disorder:
October 7, 2021   SARS-CoV2 cases:
       deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
44,932,379 727,895 1.7%
  World: 
237,327,005 4,844,480 2.1%

Tennessee and Florida continue to kill off their citizens: 
  • 9.8 million: current active USA cases -- another record high.
  • 3.6 million: cases in Florida.
  • 55 thousand: deaths in Florida.
  • 182,213: cases per million in Tennessee.
  • 15 thousand: deaths in Tennessee.
  • 28 days: most recent 50k deaths.
Speaking of Death:
Covid news:
Science:
Life around the Planet:
Politics:
Law And Disorder:
September 22, 2021   SARS-CoV2 cases:
       deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
43,370,010 699,298 1.7%
  World: 
230,777,605 4,730,528 2.1%

The Delta Surge continues.
  • 9.7 million: current active cases -- a record high (last January's peak was 9 million.)
  • 1,021,802: active cases in Florida.
  • 175,710: Cases per million in Tennessee.
  • 34 days: most recent 50k deaths
Pediatric Covid is now over 25% of total cases.

A few items:
September 17, 2021   SARS-CoV2 cases:
       deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
42,715,015 689,834 1.7%
  World: 
228,208,354 4,690,139 2.1%

A million new cases still being added every 5 to 7  days.
  • 9.6 million: current active cases.
  • 2,431: deaths in one day, September 15.
  • 37 days: most recent 50k deaths.
Covid:
Science:
Culture:
Politics:
Law and Disorder:
August 27, 2021   SARS-CoV2 cases:
       deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
39,360,976 652,088 1.7%
  World: 
215,869,753 4,494,405 2.1%
 
A million new cases still being added every week.
  • 8 million: current active cases.
  • 182,528: cases in one day, August 20.
  • 104 days: most recent 50k deaths.
  • 45 % of currently unvaccinated people say they will refuse to get vaccinated.
The 45% refusal rate means that the USA will probably "top out" at about 80% -- 82% vaccinated. That leaves 60 million Americans constantly (and permanently) brewing new Covid Variants and keeping the pandemic alive. The current mortality rates for unvaccinated people will probably hold at around 2%, which means that, eventually, 1,200,000 more Americans will die due to anti-vax propaganda.

Considering the fact that WWII killed around 420,000 Americans, the people who tell anti-vax lies are really getting the job done for killing Americans.

Science:
Futuristic fiction:
Law and Disorder:
August 19, 2021   SARS-CoV2 cases:
       deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
38,087,223 641,420 1.8%
  World: 
210,458,213 4,411,447 2.1%

We are now in the heart of the fourth wave, with a million new cases being added every week.
Thankfully, vaccinated people are experiencing a very low death rate: current USA Case Fatality Rate is 0.76%, down from 2.91% in March.
The current USA death rate is 2.48 per million, down from 10.35 per million on January 12. 
  • 7.1 million: current active cases.
  • 7 days: most recent 1 million new cases.
  • 158,127 days: cases in one day, July 18.
  • 112 days: most recent 50k deaths.
  • 59.6%: fully vaccinated.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ will give you lots of accurate information, though the daily variations can be difficult to parse.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer has a 7-day rolling average option, which smooths out all of the variations in daily reporting methods, giving you a much clearer picture of what's happening.

It is true that anti-vaccine (and anti-mask) stupidity is a massive problem in the USA, but it is very encouraging to see that another ten percent of the American population got themselves vaccinated in the last 25 days. It is clear that for some, it's "vaccine hesitancy" rather than outright opposition, and for others, it's a matter of overcoming procrastination, and finally feeling the pressure due to big local Delta outbreaks.

Finding out exactly who (in America) is getting sick and who is dying is a very difficult task. We can make some obvious guesses, based on widely known trends: people who refuse to be vaccinated are also, most frequently, those refusing to wear masks, refusing to reduce their exposure, and refusing to avoid dense crowds. It's not a logical stretch to assume that this is going to make them the group most likely to get infected, and most likely to die. The percentage of cases and fatalities from that group will inevitably overshadow the statistics for vaccinated people who take precautions -- but it's a likelihood, not a know statistic. It will probably take years before we can truly see, with high accuracy, how these dynamics work out.

SARS-CoV2:
Science:
Culture:
Politics:
Law and Disorder:
July 26, 2021   SARS-CoV2 cases:
       deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
35,249,315 626,896 1.8%
  World: 
195,276,586 4,181,842 2.1%

Current status in the USA shows an uptick in new and active cases:
  • 5.08 million: current active cases.
  • 40 days: most recent 1 million new cases.
  • 108 days: most recent 50k deaths.
  • 50%: fully vaccinated.
Science:
During times of extreme fire danger, which is, like, ALL THE TIME NOW, fireworks are often banned, but local governments sometimes claim that fireworks aren't "explosives" (which are banned under Stage 2 restrictions.)
And, some local elected officials do not believe that fireworks cause wildfires, which is patently untrue (fireworks cause over 10,000 wildfires a year): 
Even so, radical right-wing state legislators and governors are just tickled to legalize and encourage them, because "freedom": Law change brings certain fireworks back after decades-long ban.

Culture:
Law and disorder:
June 22, 2021   SARS-CoV2 cases:
       deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
34,430,695 617,779 1.8%
  World: 
179,840,379 3,895,109 2.2%
 
Current status in the USA is mostly very good news:
Science:
 History:
Culture:
Law & Disorder
May 4, 2021           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
33,263,997 592,236 1.8%
  World: 
154,812,875 3,235,634 2.2%

 Some improvement:
  • 6.7 million: current active cases.
  • 18 days: most recent 1 million new cases.
  • 58 days: most recent 50k deaths. 
Science:
Modern Life:
Culture:
April 18, 2021           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
32,367,532 580,823 1.8%
  World: 
141,730,325 3,028,546 2.2%

 Ups and downs:
  • 6.8 million: current active cases.
  • 15 days: most recent 1 million new cases.
  • 48 days: most recent 50k deaths. 
The daily deaths and active cases continue to drop, but sadly, the new case rate is climbing back up a bit.
There is still the bizarre belief that preventing disease is unpatriotic.

Covid-19 news:
Science:
Culture: 
Corporate crimes:
The Economy:
Politics:
March 22, 2021           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
30,526,030 555,339 1.8%
  World: 
124,049,995 2,730,193 2.2%

 Still better in the USA, but a long way to go.
  • 7.2 million: current active cases.
  • 19 days: most recent 1 million new cases.
  • 32 days: most recent 50k deaths. 
Science:
Culture:
The problem with Frankenstein Monsters:
  1. T**** encourages his supporters to get vaccine, within limits of 'Freedoms'
  2. T**** supporters turn against him for promoting vaccine: He's a "New York liberal"
March 13, 2021           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
30,035,331 546,431 1.8%
  World: 
120,001,955 2,658,216 2.2%

It looks like the mortality rate has stabilized at 2.2% for the USA. The final tally will likely include approximately 50% additional deaths.
This will reflect the "excess deaths" which are currently unexplained / undiagnosed, which have been documented during the course of the pandemic.

Milestones in the USA: continued improvement.
  • 4 days: 1 million new cases, most of December and January.
  • 17 days: 1 million new cases, March, 2021. That's a huge improvement.
  • 15 days: 50k deaths, January 2021.
  • 29 days: most recent 50k deaths. Also a huge improvement. 
Things are looking way better.

Science:
Tech:
Culture:
And yes, we still have Law and Disorder:
February 25, 2021           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
28,988,973 518,992
 1.8%
  World: 
113,316,017 2,513,291 2.2%
If you've watched the lovely movie "The Dig" then you have an appreciation of the treasures found at the Sutton Hoo site. They are magnificent. A closer look at some of the photos is illuminating. I was surprised to learn that a brooch from that area -- possibly from that site -- was likely plundered a century earlier, and rested in a museum not far away. There has been a fine replica made, restoring the original's grandeur, and it's really beautiful.
All of which brings up a fascination of similar artifacts from other cultures; Viking Brooches, Celtic Pins & Anglo-Saxon Penannulars, and things Celtic.
February 15, 2021           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
28,273,733 497,356
 1.7%
  World: 
109,567,712 2,415,256 2.2%

Thankfully, The COVID Vaccines Are Beating the Variants CSU researcher analyzed all of T****'s tweets to find out what he was really saying. In simple terms:
  1. "They" are out to get us.
  2. "Everyone" knows it.
  3. I'm the only one who can save you.
  4. My enemies all cheat.
  5. Unless I win, we're doomed.
February 7, 2021           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
27,608,033 479,915
 1.7%
  World: 
106,672,809 2,326,755 2.2%

Milestones in the USA: It's getting better.
  • January 8, 2021: Peak new cases per day.
  • January 12, 2021: Peak deaths per day.
  • January 31, 2021: Peak active cases.
  • Have we turned the corner? Right now, it looks like we have.

Covid-19:

Health:

Modern Life and Culture:

Chickens, roosting, etc:

Cockroaches are hard to kill:

January 31, 2021           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
26,728,157 451,303
 1.7%
  World: 
103,412,138 2,234,757 2.2%

 Milestones in the USA:
  • 15 days: 50,000 dead.
  • 30.5 million: vaccination shots administered.
Voter suppression efforts in full swing:
Covid:
Joe Biden:
    Just after the attacks on 9-11, one of my neighbors was called up for active service, with a higher security clearance. I was visited by a retired federal agent who had also just been called back up, and he was doing the background checks with neighbors. He asked me all the questions you'd expect about my neighbor -- which were all just fine. My neighbor was a good and utterly reliable person. At the end of the interview, the agent asked me, "Is there anything else you'd like to say?" I paused, and I said, "Yes. I believe you can tell a lot about a man by the way he treats his dog." The interviewer went stock still, his face went completely blank, and he was suddenly watching me like a hawk. I went on to say, "My neighbor is really, really good to his dog. He plays with him in the back yard every day. He takes him on long walks, and he talks to him like he's just his best friend in the whole world. They take turns carrying his favorite stuffed toy." The interviewer's face broke into the biggest smile, and he said, "I like the way you think."

I still think you can tell a lot about a person by the way they treat their dog.

Finally, after four years of petty stalling: U.S. Treasury resumes efforts to place Harriet Tubman on $20 dollar bill.

Congress: the full interview with Chuck Schumer was deleted, but here are excerpts from The Rachel Maddow Show 1/25/2021 - YouTube

Science, Culture and Tech:
Consequences:

January 27, 2021

Blue Pyle Bullhorn: $49.99
Amber Oakley Sunglasses: $116.00
The press leaking the news that, as leader of The Proud Boys, you were
actually an informer for the police, the DEA and the FBI: PRICELESS.
============================================================

January 25, 2021           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
25,796,515 430,522
 1.7%
  World: 
100,147,399 2,146,140 2.1%

 Milestones in the USA:
 Hitting the ground running:

I just ran across the Slate Star Codex blog, which is really fascinating.
After the author was outed against his wishes, it's been recently rebooted as Astral Codex Ten. Here's some articles worth a look:

Science and culture:
The aftermath of tyranny: Lest We Forget: The Complete Listing: of T****’s Atrocities 1-1,056 - McSweeney’s
It's a new day in America.

January 20, 2021           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
24,918,147 414,094
 1.7%
  World: 
97,078,572 2,077,038 2.1%
 
Pfizer-BioNTech Covid vaccine likely to be effective against UK variant.

 Milestones in the USA:
 Nearly 2 years' worth of rainfall possible in parts of Southern California over the next week.

Good riddance:
The final "Screw You" acts of a fleeing despot:
Culture and Modern Life:
See the "Archives" for previous posts -- here's the most recent)
Days per 50k deaths, USA:

1m, 50K: July 12 (110 days)
1 million: March 22 (37 days)
950k: February 14 (19 days)
900k: January 26 (25 days)
850k: January 1, 2022 (39 days)
800k: November 23 (37 days)
750k: October 17 (25 days)
700k: September 22 (28 days)
650k: August 25 (104 days)
600k: May 13 (58 days)
550k: March 16 (28 days)
500k: February 16 (17 days)
450k: January 30 (15 days)
400k: January 15, 2021 (16 days)
350k: December 30 (19 days)
300k: December 11 (27 days)
250k: November 14 (60 days)
200k: September 15 (52 days)
150k: July 25 (64 days)
100k: May 22 (29 days)
50k: April 23 (29 days)
1,271 March 25, 2020
Days per million new cases, USA:
will this never end?
October, 2022, fast approaching 100 million cases
93 million: July 30 (8 days per million cases)
85 million: May 27 (10 days)
84 million: May 17 (8 days per million cases)
81 million: March 23 (28 days)
78 Million: February 7
    24 million new cases in 41 days --
    Less than 2 days per million cases
54 million: December 28 (4 days)
53 million: December 24 (3 days)
52 million: December 21 (8 days) 
51 million: December 13 (8 days)
50 million: December 5 (9 days)
49 million: November 26 (12 days)
48 million: November 14 (12 days)
47 million: November 2 (14 days)
46 million: October 19 (12 days)
45 million: October 7 (9 days)
44 million: September 28 ((9 days)
43 million: September 19 (7 days)
42 million: September 12 (7 days)
41 million: September 5 (5 days)
40 million: August 31 (6 days)
39 million: August 25 (7 days)
38 million: August 18 (7 days)
37 million: August 11 (8 days)
36 million: August 3 (13 days)
35 million: July 21 (56 days)
34 million: May 26 (27 days)
33 million: April 29 (16 days)
32 million: April 13 (15 days)
31 million: March 29 (16 days)
30 million: March 13 (17 days)
29 million: February 24 (13 days)
28 million: February 11 (9 days)
27 million: February 2 (7 days)
26 million: January 26 (5 days)
25 million: January 21 (5 days)
24 million: January 15 (4 days)
23 million: January 11 (4 days)
22 million: January 7 (4 days)
21 million: January 3 (4 days)
20 million: December 30 (6 days)
19 million: December 24 (5 days)
18 million: December 19 (4 days)
17 million: December 15 (5 days)
16 million: December 10 (5 days)
15 million: December 5 (4 days)
14 million: December 1 (6 days)
13 million: November 25 (6 days)
12 million: November 19 (6 days)
11 million: November 13 (6 days)
10 million: November 7 (11 days)
9 million: October 27 (16 days)
8 million: October 11 (22 days)
7 million: September 19 (24 days)
6 million: August 26 (20 days)
5 million: August 6 (16 days)
4 million: July 21 (15 days)
3 million: July 6 (29 days
2 million: June 7 (41 days)
1 million: April 27 (47 days)
1,248: March 11, 2020

1. Unfalsifiable: It can’t be proven wrong.

2. Relies heavily on anecdotes: The evidence largely comes from personal experiences and testimonials.

3. Cherry picks evidence: Uses favorable evidence while ignoring or minimizing disconfirming evidence.

4. Uses technobabble: Words that sound scientific but are used incorrectly or don’t make sense.

6. Resists change: Doesn’t self-correct or progress.

7. Makes extraordinary/exaggerated claims: Promises extraordinary benefits with insufficient evidence.

8. Professes certainty: Talks of “proof” and presents ideas with complete confidence.

9. Commits logical fallacies: Arguments contain errors in reasoning.
  • Appeal to nature: Agues that something is good because it’s natural or bad because it’s unnatural.
  • Appeal to tradition: Asserts that something is good or true because it’s old.
  • Argument from ignorance: Asserts that something is true because we don’t know that it’s not.
  • Ad hominem: Attacks the source of the argument instead of the substance.
10. Lacks adequate peer review: Avoids critical scrutiny by the scientific community. 

11. Claims there’s a conspiracy to suppress their ideas: Criticism by the scientific community is a conspiracy
  Don't get suckered. Look it up.
The most reliable source of daily news:
NPR
Research Wikipedia:
Papa Vox Archives:
2020, January through May
2017 through 2019
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Sept through Dec, 2011
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 Old and somewhat interesting posts,
stripped of their former political grousing:
2010  --  2009  --  2008  --  2007  --  2006
 David Brin's Blog
One of today's greatest SciFi authors. A rational, scientific approach to modern life and governmental policy -- what a radical concept!
Hacking yourself:
An experiment in the supposition that shoes are bad for you, with some reviews of various nearly-barefoot alternatives, known as "minimalist" shoes.
Educate yourself:
Dump Windows. Get LINUX / Ubuntu
READ CAREFULLY.
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The Earth is Spherical.
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Wear a Mask.
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Contrails are just water vapor.
You can’t Pray Away the Gay.
The Moon Landings were real.
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SARS-CoV-2 is real.
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