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Papa  Vox:
Archive: June 2020 through January 14, 2020


January 14, 2021           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
23,745,213 396,246
1.7%
  World: 
93,270,929 1,995,348 2.1%
 
 Milestones in the USA:
  • 308,022: new cases in one day, January 8.
  • 16 days: 50,000 dead.
  • 9.2 million: people currently infected.
  • 4,497: deaths in one day, January 12.
  • 5,500: CDC projected daily deaths, for March 1, 2021.

Are There Enough Senate Republican Votes to Convict T****?



January 12, 2021           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
23,172,759 386,309
1.7%
  World: 
91,593,675 1,960,335 2.1%

Milestones in the USA:
  • every four days: a million new USA cases.
  • 12%: population infected in North Dakota.
  • 2.2%: population dead from the virus in New Jersey.
  • 750,000: CDC's projected total USA deaths, by May, 2021.
  • "Just Let The Virus Wash Over America": T****'s plan.

T**** after his violent mob attacked Congress: "What I said was totally appropriate."

You think T****ers are done? They aren't done:

The Attempted Coup that was also a Superspreader Event: 

And 73% of Republicans think T**** is still "Protecting American Democracy": T**** approval ratings after mob attack



January 10, 2021           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
22,794,529 382,380
1.7%
  World: 
90,459,220 1,939,946 2.1%

Milestones in the USA:
  • 9 million: current USA cases
  • 307,607: new USA cases in one day, January 8, 2021.
  • 19,362: USA deaths, over 5 days, January 5 - 9, 2021.
  • 4,245: USA deaths in one day, January 7, 2021
SARS-CoV-2:

Regarding the armed insurrection January 6 attack on the US Capitol:

More Chilling Stories of the Capitol Riot Emerge: Updates. It was much worse than we thought.

Fox has been calling this a "spontaneous protest that got a little out of hand" for days now. Oh, and by the way, Fox is blaming it all on Democrats and BLM.

It wasn't a protest. It wasn't a riot. It wasn't spontaneous, and it was designed to be violent from the start. It was a plannedorganized coup attempt, by way of an armed mob attack, deliberately lead by T**** and tacitly enabled by the Capitol Police, many of whom were pleased to help. Months ahead, T**** gutted the DHS Threat Assessment program.

This is extremely serious, and getting more so, as more is learned. More caches of weapons, incendiaries and explosives have been found. The attackers grabbed the first officer blocking the door, pulled him out, and beat him badly with weapons they had brought. Six people have died.
  • Forget this picture. This is a buffoon.
  • Consider this picture. That is not a police officer. That is a guy in military gear, with handcuff zip-ties hanging from his belt, attempting to take members of the US Congress hostage.
And Federal Prosecutors are worried that T**** is now considering pardoning all of the Capitol attackers.
Republicans are saying "This is not a time for finger-pointing, we need to move forward and heal."

What we need is to impeach T**** and remove him from office immediately, and prosecute him for sedition. Right now.

Or else he'll do it again.
On Inauguration Day, T**** will announce his bid for the 2024 Presidential Race.
T**** supporters, convinced that they can remove Biden and Harris by force, plan to attack the Biden Inauguration.

I dislike making such predictions, but if T**** is still President on January 20, I fear there will be a great deal of civil violence, both widespread, and deliberately targeted to achieve a Coup.

By the way, the armed militia takeover of the Washington State Capitol building planned for today was cancelled -- after the Governor called up the National Guard.


January 1, 2021           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
20,617,346 356,445
1.7%
  World: 
84,379,383 1,835,306 2.2%

Milestones in the USA:
  • 8 million: currently verified infected people in the USA
SARS-CoV-2 news:
Tech, Science and Culture:


December 26, 2020           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
19,433,847 339,921
1.8%
  World: 
80,720,204 1,764,697 2.2%

Milestones in the USA:
  • 7,683,425: currently verified infected people in the USA
  • 14,267: deaths in the last five days
SARS-CoV-2:
The Last Gasps:
Law and Disorder:
Science:
Culture:


December 21, 2020           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
18,341,673 325,654
1.8%
  World: 
77,509,003 1,705,537 2.2%

 Milestones in the USA:
  • 4 days: another million new cases
  • 254,686: cases in one day, December 18
  • 3,561: USA deaths in one day, December 16
SARS-CoV-2:
Science:
The Slow-Motion Train Wreck:
Culture and Modern Life:


December 16, 2020           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
17,267,124 313,351
1.8%
  World: 
74,300,916 1,651,442 2.2%

 Milestones in the USA:
  • 5 days: another million new cases
  • 16,278: deaths in the last week
  • 6.7 million: currently infected Americans
COVID-19 news:
Culture:
The crumbling Trump Turdnado:
 Law And Disorder:


December 11, 2020 update: game change.
December 11, 2020           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
16,039,393 299,692
1.9%
  World: 
70,777,546 1,589,553 2.3%

Milestones in the USA:
  • 5 days: one million new cases
  • 3,263: deaths, December 9, 2020
  • 6.4 million: currently infected Americans
  • 8 weeks: current doubling rate of cases.
  • Since the election: 6.5 million new cases.

106 GOP House Members try to overturn the election.



December 9, 2020           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
15,594,939 293,503
1.9%
  World: 
68,741,605 1,566,602 2.3%

Mile
stones in the USA:
  • 4 days: 1 million new cases
  • 2,960: deaths yesterday, December 8, 2020
  • 238,065: new infections in one day, December 4, 2020
  • 6.2 million: currently infected Americans
  • 9 weeks: current doubling rate of cases.
COVID-19 news:
Steps toward sanity:
Science:
Politics:
A lawsuit forces him into the open: The Man Who Found Forrest Fenn's Treasure


December 4, 2020           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
14,617,223 283,805
1.9%
  World: 
65,944,911 1,519,156 2.3%

Mile
stones in the USA:
  • 6 days: another million new cases, four times in a row.
  • 218,576: new infections in one day, December 3, 2020
  • 5.6 million: currently infected Americans
  • 10 weeks: current doubling rate of cases.
  • Unless Biden can get a handle on this, we are currently on a track that leads to 28 million cases and a half million deaths by Valentine's Day.
Pretty much the whole story to date: Inside Trump’s failed quest to overturn the election - The Washington Post
Dethroned? Newsmax Rises On Resentment Of Trump Fans Toward Fox News

Food:
Culture:
Klaatu barada nikto:


 
November 27, 2020           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
13,417,645 270,740
2.0%
  World: 
61,889,645 1,446,972 2.4%

Milestones in the USA:
  • 6 days: another million new cases, three times in a row.
  • 5.1 million: currently infected Americans
  • 0/zip/zilch/nada: leadership from the Trump administration.
COVID-19 news:
Take back the Senate:
Death Throes of a failed Dictator:
Science:


November 19, 2020           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
12,018,756 257,735
2.1%
  World: 
57,141,163 1,376,658 2.4%

Milestones in the USA:
  • 6 days: another million new cases.
  • 3 months: current US case doubling rate.
  • 1,971: deaths in one day, November 18, 2020
  • 4.45 million: currently infected Americans
COVID-19 news:
Well. It's awful and Trump is still saying "it's fine." And he won't let President Elect Biden's team even start a Pandemic Transition.
Why won't Trump Concede? It's all about Georgia.

The GOP is terrified that if Trump concedes, then MAGA Hat voters will lose heart and think the Party abandoned them. They won't bother to vote in the Georgia Runoff.
If the two Democrats win the Georgia Senate seats -- AND THEY COULD -- the GOP Senate Majority is broken.
He's stalling by holding a limited recount in Wisconsin, and by spewing garbage conspiracy theories:
Oh yeah, and he might also go to War:
Thank goodness that GOP Leaders In 4 States Quashed A Dubious Trump Scheme On Electors -- even though that would not have worked. Trump has no chance at an election-stealing coup via the Electoral College.

Meanwhile, the damage rolls on:
Culture:


November 14, 2020           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
11,148,560 250,695 2.2%
  World: 
54,162,908 1,315,301 2.4%

Milestones in the USA:
  • 6 days: one million new cases.
  • 187,957: new cases in one day, November 13, 2020
  • 4 million: currently infected Americans
Trump wanted the virus to "wash over" the USA, and he has gotten his wish. It's costing us 1,400 American deaths a day. Republican presidents love to leave their Democratic successors with a big mess to clean up. Trump will leave behind a scene of medieval catastrophe.

SARS-CoV-2:
Science:
Culture:
AOC has some tough love for the Democrats, and it's pissing them off:
What's interesting is that she easily won her reelection, and the people who were on board with her platform also won. But the DNC says that she's "too extreme" and we can't ever use the word "Socialist" or we'll lose and "moderates" are the key to winning -- and Democrats just lost seats in the House, failed to win the Senate, and failed to generate the Blue Tsunami that ALL of the Trump disapproval polls predicted.

But some Democrats have thoughts of their own:
The Republican view of how to go after AOC: Pound on Socialism, and say she'll raise taxes.

Here's one of the best recent articles about her: Who Is AOC: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Her Rise to Political Power.

And you may be interested to learn about the very successful model of Democratic Socialism in Scandinavia: A Beginner’s Guide.
The Fall Of Herr Drumph:


November 11, 2020           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
10,615,210 246,380 2.3%
  World: 
52,222,469 1,285,950 2.5%

Mile
stones in the USA:
  • 9 days: one million new cases. The Pandemic is accelerating.

After more research, and a kind person sending me some new links, I will edit this to reflect reality. Because that's what reasonable people do: when we learn something new, we change our minds.
So then. Joe won, and he won decisively.

But Trump's supporters live in a different world. Trump says "Democrats Cheated" and his supporters believe him. 

There is a fairly widespread belief that Trump can still pull this off. The theory is that he can stall and obstruct until the Electoral College meets, and then all he needs is one  or two swing-state Governors to send competing Elector delegates, just to bollix up the Electoral vote, forcing it into the US House. Then Trump will triumph in a house vote, because in that case the House votes by State, not by Member, and Republicans have a 26 state Republican majority. Trump has been spreading this in his campaign speeches: “And I don’t want to end up in the Supreme Court and I don’t want to go back to Congress either, even though we have an advantage if we go back to Congress—does everyone understand that? I think it’s 26 to 22 or something because it’s counted one vote per state, so we actually have an advantage.”

However, this is not how the Constitution works. There's several steps between here and there, and it's not going to happen.

It is true that Trump just decapitated the Department Of Defense, which is a deeply disturbing move -- but the US military does not take an oath to support the President. They take an oath to support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.

Trump is done. The fat lady has sung. Elvis has left the building. Yogi Berra said "It's ain't over until it's over" and guess what: it's over.


Joe won.

November 7, 2020           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
10,090,948 242,529 2.4%
  World: 
49,995,036 1,253,462 2.5%

Mile
stones in the USA:
  • 10 million: total cases.
  • 50 million: total World cases
  • 132,540: new cases in one day, November 6, 2020.
  • 3,425,148: people currently infected.
Don't forget that Trump is running the COVID-19 response for the next 10 weeks.

The "Blue Wave that didn't happen."

With Joe Biden leading by ten to fifteen percent among registered voters, and by twenty percent in approval polls, victory seemed inevitable, and a landslide likely. He did, in fact, win by about 4 million (Final update: over 7 million) votes. But the Electoral Votes are what counts in America, and it was a squeaker.

The GOP
very nearly won, by using voter suppression. They:
  • gutted the Voting Rights Act
  • closed thousands of polling stations
  • closed thousands of ballot drop locations
  • deeply crippled the Post Office
  • closed DMV (and voter registration) offices in poor districts
  • spent billions on targeted voter disinformation
  • purged millions of registered voters
  • created registration hurdles and early deadlines
  • added a poll tax
  • enacted obstructing ID laws
  • threatened violence and armed civil war
-- and they still lost.

But do not forget; voter suppression works. Iowa directly disenfranchised 260,000 voters with a restrictive ID law. Georgia disenfranchised 100,000 people by forcing early registration cutoffs. North Dakota disenfranchised thousands of Native Americans with a targeted physical address registration requirement. Texas likely disenfranchised millions of voters by limiting ballot drop boxes specifically in urban Democratic areas. Voters in Democratic districts had to stand in line for hours, some in bad weather, all exposed to a dangerous virus.

If every eligible voter in America had been allowed to vote unmolested and unhindered, I believe it is likely that Biden would have won by a massive landslide.

A few items:


November 3, 2020           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
9,579,398 237,177 2.5%
  World: 
47,568,952 1,214,844 2.6%

Milestones in the USA:
  • 101,426: new cases in one day, October 30, 2020.
  • 6,478: COVID-19 deaths in the last week.
  • 3,159,144: people currently infected.
Election Day, 2020.

I must admit to being in a very dark place this morning. I suspect that the massive, sweeping, nationwide voter suppression, disenfranchisement, and election fraud methods used by Trump and his followers will work.

And the people that are doing this call themselves Americans.
From Society in EL PAÍS in English (you may need to start here to navigate to the following links, to get them to work.)
What Trump doesn't want you to know: Hidden Documents Show Which Hospitals Are Filling Up With COVID Patients.

Trying to find out if rehearsing and performing will kill you: Reducing bio-aerosol emissions and exposures in the performing arts - Colorado State University School of Music, Theatre and Dance
 
I will try for something a little more lighthearted:


 October 28, 2020           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
9,110,354 233,022 2.6%
  World: 
44,708,007 1,177,977 2.6%

As Trump closes in on his grab for the election, a Pandemic disaster encircles the nation and the world.

Mile
stones:
  • 16 days: how long it just took to add a million US cases.
  • 81,424: new COVID-19 cases in one day, October 23, 2020


How banks ripped off Americans, destroyed HALF of America's Black wealth, and got away with it: The Steal of the Century.


Dr Sanjay Gupta on Colbert's Late Show: The current SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic is going just as badly as the 1918 pandemic.
  • In the 1918 pandemic, after 7 months , 75,000 Americans died. This was with one third the current population.
  • That death rate times three gives us 225k, which is EXACTLY were we are today.
  • THIS IS AS BAD AS 1918.
Covid-19:
VOTE:
Trump's Power Grab:
Nick Offerman as Gimli? And my chisel!


 October 21, 2020           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
8,570,618 227,128 2.6%
  World: 
41,412,337 1,134,725 2.7%

Milestones:
  • 9 million: US cases estimated to occur by October 31, Halloween, 2020.
  • 300,000: the likely current death toll due to SARS-CoV-2 in the USA.
  • 24%: the COVID-19 mortality rate for people over 65 in America.
Medical news:
Fact From Fiction:
What does it all come down to? It comes down to this:
Wow, people in Utah are really polite: 


 October 11, 2020           cases:       
      deaths:    
  mortality: 
USA:
7,985,202 219,672 2.8%
  World: 
37,700,479 1,080,414 2.9%

Milestones:
  • Over one million: worldwide deaths from the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
  • 8 million: number of USA cases by tomorrow, October 12, 2020.
  • 2.5 million: active US cases every day since the beginning of August.
  • 700: deaths per day in the USA
Vote:
Decorate:
Herr Drumph:
Civil unrest:


 September 25, 2020   cases:
    deaths:   
  mortality: 
USA:
7,187,179 207,555 2.9%
  World: 
 32,459,364  988,530 3.1%
 
Milestones:
  • September 20: 7 million USA cases.
  • September 16: 30 million World cases.
  • In two or three days: one million deaths.
Coronavirus news:

The list of "Coronavirus Super-spreader Events" continues to grow: the Maine wedding, a Georgia funeral, a Boston conference, a Washing state choir rehearsal, a single dinner at a restaurant, a Miami Beach party, a Trump rally, and the devastating event at Sturgis where 250,00 new cases were caused by a motorcycle rally. The consequences of the Sturgis event are so dire that the wacko MAGA Media is in full propaganda mode, issuing frantic denials of reality from every outlet, echoed back and forth between medical ignoramuses like Rush Limbaugh and the Rat Lickers at Fox News. Culture:


September 16, 2020   cases:
    deaths:   
  mortality: 
USA:
6,798,679 200,688 2.9%
  World: 
 29,859,075  941,489 3.1%

Milestones:
  • Over 200,000 deaths now in the USA.
  • Closing in on 30 Million cases worldwide.
  • The US will likely reach 7 million cases next week; the rate of new cases is slowing somewhat.
  • Mortality rates continue to fall, very slowly.
The spread:
The cost:
The hope:
Police State: 
The Republican conspiracy to steal the 2020 election:
Why I hate committee meetings:

Of course he was:

It's about damn time:

It will be interesting to see if the "automaker for the 1%" will face the same disastrous fallout from this as "the people's car" maker did:  Mercedes-Benz fined $1.5 billion for emissions cheating.



 September 9, 2020   cases:
    deaths:   
  mortality: 
USA:
6,542,627 194,942 3.0%
  World: 
 27,968,010  906,201 3.2%

COVID-19 news:
  • An excellent article with significant news and insights: A Supercomputer's Covid-19 Analysis Yields a New Way to Understand the Virus.  Salient points:
    • The Covid-19 virus enters the body through susceptible ACE2 receptors in the nose, circulating to other ACE2 receptors in the intestines, kidneys, and heart. The virus then hijacks ACE2 receptors in places where they’re usually expressed at low or medium levels, including the lungs.
    • The virus hijacks the renin–angiotensin system, resulting in a runaway buildup of bradykinin (a chemical which normally regulates blood pressure) in the body, resulting in dramatically increased vascular permeability.
    • As blood vessels start to leak due to a bradykinin storm, the lungs can fill with fluid and immune cells.
    • The virus increases production of hyaluronic acid (HLA) in the lungs. It forms a hydrogel, which can fill the lungs in some patients, making oxygen absorption impossible.
    • Bradykinin storms account for swollen, bruised toes, compromised thyroid function, cardiac damage, dizziness, seizures, delirium, stroke, internal organ damage, and brain damage.
    • The study suggests 10-plus potential treatments, some of which are already FDA approved.
    • Vitamin D is a potentially useful Covid-19 drug.
    • Danazol, stanozolol, and ecallantide, reduce bradykinin production. Icatibant reduces bradykinin signaling.
    • Hymecromone could reduce hydrogels in the lungs. Timbetasin could protect from more severe Covid-19 infections.
Science and tech:
Culture: 
Police State:


  August 29, 2020   cases:
    deaths:   
  mortality: 
USA:
6,119,044 186,532 3.0%
  World: 
 25,071,196  844,350 3.4%

Cases by date:
  • 1,000: March 11
  • 1 million: April 27 (47 days)
  • 2 million: June 7 (41 days)
  • 3 million: July 6 (29 days)
  • 4 million: July 21 (15 days)
  • 5 million: August 6 (16 days)
  • 6 million: August 26 (20 days)
  • 7 million: estimate September 16
Projections:
  • 1,600: estimated daily deaths by Election Day
  • 250,000: estimated total deaths by Election Day
COVID-19 news:
Science:
With the current air quality in the gutter for large swaths of the country, thanks to massive wild fires, air pollution is a serious problem for millions of Americans with respiratory difficulties.

For current fire information: https://fsapps.nwcg.gov/googleearth.php. It has links to fire data for Google Earth. Use the AFM KML Bundle, which you can download and then open in Google Earth. After it is open, save it to your places. These various layers have far more fire information than I have seen elsewhere.

Some air quality websites to check:
The most accurate local air quality monitoring and forecast I have found is to use the NOAA point forecast for your location, and then click on the Air Quality Forecast link.

For example, the NOAA Point Forecast for Denver would be: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.74&lon=-104.992
(for your own location, enter your local zipcode in the search box, upper left.)

The Denver Air Quality Forecast (it's just below the Detailed Forecast list): https://airquality.weather.gov/probe_aq_data.php?latitude=39.74&longitude=-104.992
The "1 Hour Surface Smoke (µg/m³) 06Z Model Run" is the most important measurement for wildfire smoke. Low numbers are good, high numbers are bad.
Good (0–50)
Moderate (51–100) reduce your exposure.
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (101–150) control exposure.
Unhealthy (151–200) Consider canceling outdoor events.
Very Unhealthy (201–300) Consider closing some or all schools.
Hazardous (> 300) Stay inside, use a HEPA filter.
More links:
There are now air quality monitors that you can use in your home or on your person: 
Modern life:


August 23, 2020
US cases: 5,851,809 -- deaths: 180,304 -- death rate: 3.1%
World cases: 23,486,144 -- deaths: 810,182 -- death rate: 3.5%
By the time the election rolls around, the USA will likely have over 250,000 deaths, and over 10 million cases.

My prediction: unless Joe Biden wins by a remarkable landslide, it will take an act of Congress to remove Trump from the White House.
And an even sadder prediction: this election will be so chaotic that it will only be possible to estimate the outcome.  Trump will cause and use that chaos to insist that he won, and that Democrats cheated to win.

COVID-19:

The Post Office:
The Election:
Vote:
When I was a young man, I saw a small poster that said, "If voting really made a difference, the Government wouldn't let you do it."
And now we know that it must make a big difference because the Government is trying, very hard, to stop you from voting.
Politics:

You may find this Safety Sign Generator entertaining. It was actually intended for serious use, but silly use is good, too.


August 14, 2020
US cases: 5,431,381 -- deaths: 170,782 -- death rate: 3.1%
World cases: 21,176,295 -- deaths: 759,397 -- death rate: 3.6%
An exceptionally informative article: Asymptomatic people with coronavirus may hold the key to ending the pandemic.
Adjuvants: A Key Ingredient For Making A COVID-19 Vaccine Work

The timeline itself shows that Trump wasn't much interested in testing or masks -- until Red states started getting hit hard. Was it deliberate?

Other Covid-19 news:

Do you want Trump's face on Mount Rushmore? Well, you're going to get it, unless we stop him.
Trump is trying to destroy the US Postal Service in order to suppress votes against himself.
We must fight against this, and we must fight now. Call, write donate, get it done.

Save the USPS: 


The world is getting:


August 11, 2020
US cases: 5,265,957 -- deaths: 166,763 -- death rate: 3.2%
World cases: 20,378,854 -- deaths: 741,631 -- death rate: 3.7%

Perspective: comparisons between COVID-19 and the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.

Exact numbers for the 1918 Pandemic are not possible; record keeping of the day was not reliable enough, many records were lost, and WWI made any possibility of accuracy impossible. Still, we have estimates:
In the USA, the 1918 Flu killed somewhere between 500,000 to 850,000 (0.48 to 0.81 percent of the population).

Those numbers, just for the sake of perspective, can be rounded off to 675,000 deaths, at 0.65 % of the population. An estimated 28% of the population of 105 million became infected.

1918 Influenza in America (pop 105,000,000):
  • 29,400,000 cases
  • 675,000 deaths
  • 2.3% mortality rate for persons infected
  • 28% total infection rate
  • 0.643% national mortality
Adjusted to our current USA population of 330,000,000, that would be the equivalent of:
  • 93,492,000 US cases
  • 2,146,500 US deaths
We are somewhere in the middle of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic. So far:
  • 5,181,399 current cases -- estimated to be up to ten times that number by the CDC
  • 165,423 current deaths -- estimated to be 50% higher by the CDC
  • 3.2% current mortality rate for persons infected -- this may be much lower
  • 1.6% current infection rate
  • 0.05% current national mortality
So, we are, thank goodness, nowhere near the devastation of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic -- yet. But where this all ends up is, sadly, anyone's guess. We've seen many countries bring SARS-CoV-2 under control, and the USA isn't one of them.

Could it get ten times worse? Yes, it could, very easily. The current rate of case increase (doubling every 40 to 50 days) will result in us reaching a 1918-level disaster in 23 to 28 weeks, unless we stop politicizing the science and the response. This needs leadership by word and example and action. Sadly, the next 20 weeks are lost to us, thanks to Trump's blundering, and his loyal GOP Senate.

My own prediction is that, by the time Biden takes office in January -- if he takes office -- we will be seeing around 20 million US cases, and between 3 and 6 million deaths. I hope I am wrong, because this will far surpass the deaths from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic -- unless we immediately start paying people, kids included, to stay home, do massively expanded testing and contact tracing, and rebuild the US health care capacity. If Trump's Hail Pharma magically produces a vaccine, good enough, cheap enough, and distributed enough, to make a dent, it will be too late to prevent the losses already suffered due to incompetence.

It has been 25 or so weeks since this started. I am not optimistic about the next 20 weeks.

In other words, if Biden wins the election, we are currently only about half-way through Donald Trump's handling of the Pandemic.


August 9, 2020
US cases: 5,181,399 -- deaths: 165,423 -- death rate: 3.2%
World cases: 19,951,995 -- deaths: 732,243 -- death rate: 3.7%
COVID-19 news:
Science:  
Organic Herbal Health Supplements:
We're not "all to blame":
Enemy Propaganda is a real problem:
Harry Potter's Favorite: 
Culture: 
  • People respond to "Preacher carrying a 'You Deserve To Be RAPED' sign gets hit in the head by baseball-bat wielding woman."  i love this - Imgur
 Law and Disorder:


August 6, 2020
US cases: 5,032,179 -- deaths: 162,804 -- death rate: 3.3%
World cases: 19,261,682 -- deaths: 717,710 -- death rate: 3.8%
US cases went from 4 million to 5 million in 16 days.
Expect 6 million by August 22 -- if not sooner.

Us cases have doubled every 41 to 44 days.
We may see 8 million cases by Labor day -- or we may get lucky, and not see 8 million until September 23, two weeks later.


August 4, 2020
US cases: 4,901,364 -- deaths: 159,853 -- death rate: 3.3%
World cases: 18,599,978 -- deaths: 701,201 -- death rate: 3.8%
The USA will likely reach 5 million cases in the next two or three days.
  • 1k to 1 million: 47 days (March 11 to April 27)
  • 1 million to 2 million: 41 days (April 27 to June 7.)
  • 2 million to 3 million: 29 days (June 7 to July 6.)
  • 3 million to 4 million: 15 days (July 6 to July 21.)
  • 4 million to 5 million: estimated 16 days (July 21 to August 6 or 7)  -- UPDATE: it was 16 days exactly.

An idiotic argument I've heard is, "You're not in any danger unless you have an underlying condition."
Those conditions include:
  • Being over age 50: 34% of US population
  • Being overweight: 71.6% of US population
  • Having high blood pressure: 32% of US adults
  • Having high blood sugar / diabetes: 33% of US adults
  • Having allergies: 30% of US adults, 40% of US children
  • Having asthma: 7.6 % of US adults, 9.4% of US children
  • Having arthritis: 23% of US population
  • Having cardiovascular disease: 48% of US adults
  • Having Irritable Bowel Syndrome: 15% of US population
In fact, the Rand Review says that 59% of the US population has a chronic medical condition of some sort, and 28% have over three conditions. 12% have over five chronic conditions.

Of the remaining population with no underlying medical conditions, 36% of the US population has Type A blood -- an increased rick factor.

That adds up to 74% of the US population being at some risk for COVID 19.

A good version of the "masks required" sign:
MASK REQUIRED
Do not pout. Do not whine. Do not argue.
Do not harass employees. Do not throw a temper tantrum.
Do not spout conspiracy theories or regurgitate misinformation you read on FaceBook.
This is not political, it's basic medical science.
"I left it in my car." Go get it.
"This is unconstitutional." Not it's not.
"This is a hoax." 160,000 dead Americans would disagree, if only they could.

A lucid look at expert's estimates on When Will Life Return to Normal?

Now, I'm not saying that Trump deliberately decided to let the virus ravage blue states, because red states were doing relatively OK,
but he didn't even begin to change his idiotic views until after red states started to look much worse then blue states.



I want to see Nike make facemasks with their swoosh, and the words "Just Wear It."


August 2, 2020
US cases: 4,810,332 -- deaths: 158,310 -- death rate: 3.3%
World cases: 18,196,017 -- deaths: 691,736 -- death rate: 3.8%
In the new GOP plan, you can’t sue your employers for giving you COVID — but they can sue you for requesting safe working conditions.

SARS-CoV-2 medical news:
Bureaucratic SARS-CoV-2 news:
The Doofus In Chief:
Various other items:
Law and Disorder:
Internet humor:


July 29, 2020
US cases: 4,521,761 -- deaths: 152,851 -- death rate: 3.3%
World cases: 17,029,569 -- deaths: 666,056 -- death rate: 3.9%
National Teachers Union Approves Potential Educator 'Safety Strikes'

The USA is currently adding a million cases every two weeks. The world is adding two million cases per week.

The mortality rate is falling -- because younger people are getting it. In the USA, the 20 - 30 age group is the highest percentage of cases. People in that age group have been told -- by Trump and by Fox -- that they are "immune" from ill effects of SARS-CoV-2. Sadly, they are not immune; over a thousand of them have died from the virus. And they are spreading it like wildfire.

The highest risk activities now are at concerts, sports events, bars, restaurants, and public beaches -- places where people in their twenties congregate.

I'm unsure how to proceed with this blog. It has a light readership -- perhaps 20 - 30 per day. It's mostly a way for me to convey articles I find noteworthy to a few people, and to vent a little. But we all know that the virus is out there. We all know the the Trump administration has been criminally negligent -- and actually deliberately obstructive -- in combating the pandemic. We all know that it's getting worse, fast. So I will probably not continue to post articles that state the obvious. Instead, I will try to focus on articles that I especially find informative, or which have a perspective that is not widely disseminated.

I will keep pointing out the ongoing police violence, and racial disparities, because those problems fall so quickly from the national media's radar.

The new sound of hospitals; people pounding on glass: This American Life: 709: The Reprieve on Apple Podcasts

From The Lancet, one of the most respected medical journals in the world:
Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2
  • Transmission of viruses was lower with physical distancing of 1 m or more.
  • Protection was increased as distance was lengthened.
  • Face mask use could result in a large reduction in risk of infection.
  • Eye protection also was associated with less infection.

How Long Does COVID-19 Immunity Last After Recovering? 90% of recovering patients had antibody responses that lasted at least three months. "It's reasonable to assume that there will be protection for a time frame of one to three years."

SARS-CoV-2 and other health news:
Mental health, sort of:
Law and Disorder:

When you stack these graphs up and look at them, you may indeed ask, WTF Happened In 1971?
I happen to be old enough to remember exactly what happened in 1971. America had been booming since the end of the war. Europe and Asia had been in a shambles, but in twenty five years, the global economy had recovered pretty well, and the rest of the world started to boom, too. Even South America and Africa had started to boom. The owners of the biggest US corporations gathered together, and decided they wanted that money. They wanted to go global, capture, consolidate, and dominate world markets.

"But that won't work," said economists.

"Why not?" asked the Corporate Overlords.

"Because American workers make too much money," the economists said. "To dominate world markets, you'll have to cut the standard of living in half for American workers, and they won't stand for it. But you could just move all the jobs overseas, where workers get paid peanuts. You'll lose some business because you fired all of your workers, and that will damage the US economy, but you'll rake in profits like bandits."

"And what happens if we ship jobs overseas for a generation?"

"Well, you'll damage the US job market so badly that the American working-class standard of living will be cut in half, which is what you wanted all along anyway. Corporate profits will be amazing, though."

"Perfect. Let's unleash the forces of the Free Market."

"But the US Government won't let you."

"Yes they will."

At the time, this was all written about openly, in the WSJ, the NYT, and the Washington Post.


July 21, 2020
US cases: 4,018,598 -- deaths: 144,800 -- death rate: 4.1%
World cases: 15,049,324 -- deaths: 617,752 -- death rate: 4.4%
We went from one million to two million in six weeks. We went from two million to three million in four weeks. We went from three million to four million in 15 days.

It's doubling every six weeks.


It's too late to sound the alarm, it's too late to level it off, and it's too late to stop it. Just hang on, and stay as safe as you can.

Franklin Veaux's answer to How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
For every one person who dies:
  • 19 more require hospitalization.
  • 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.
  • 10 will have permanent lung damage.
  • 3 will have strokes.
  • 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination.
  • 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function.
So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes:
  • 3,282,000 people dead.
  • 2,358,000 hospitalized.
  • 59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage.
  • 32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage.
  • 9,846,000 people with strokes.
  • 6,564,000 people with muscle weakness.
  • 6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function.
That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get.
The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway.
The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.

(Editor's note: this amounts to a total of 118 million Americans taken out of the productive workforce -- probably permanently. This is ONE THIRD of the country -- the exact same proportion of people killed by the Black Death. And it will cost additional billions to take care of 112,000,000 newly disabled people.)

People are quoting A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers and claiming that the study says "cloth masks are worse than nothing." They did not say that. They said that we need medical grade masks, used appropriately, and that the shortage of those has forced people -- including medical professionals -- to use poor substitutes. They said that "standard practice" -- which includes the use of medical grade n-95 or surgical masks, plus gowns, head coverings, face shields, footie coverings and gloves, where appropriate -- is better than wearing only a cloth mask. They also said (in the March 30 addendum, "cloth masks as a last resort") that cloth masks are better than nothing. And right now, in far too many cases, nothing is all many medical professionals have.

It's similar to the Soviets fighting Nazi Panzer divisions in WWII with nothing but foot soldiers and small arms. It was rather less than ideal, but those were desperate times. They did the best they could with what they had.

It's hitting kids very hard:
Along with Coscto, Walmart To Finally Require All Customers To Wear Masks. And finally, Target, CVS Shoppers Will Be Required To Wear Masks.

For each teacher, for the entire year, one mask, and one glove. Not one pair -- just one single glove: Insulting “support” from the Arkansas Dept of Education.

An illuminating COVID-19_Risk_Chart.

And more of, sadly, the same:
And of course there's also Trump's Invasion Of Portland.

Trying to lighten up a bit:



July 11, 2020
US cases: 3,332,352 -- deaths: 137,211 -- death rate: 4.1%
World cases: 12,748,917 -- deaths: 563,300 -- death rate: 4.4%
TIPPING POINT:
This is catastrophic.

"Why don’t we let this wash over the country?” asked Trump.

I wish I could be hopeful, or optimistic, or encouraging, but at this point, we must all simply do the best we can to protect ourselves, and take care of ourselves -- completely by ourselves. We have been utterly abandoned by the Trump Administration. Not only has all responsibility been completely abdicated, but Trump is trying his hardest to actually make this worse, faster, by forcing schools to reopen under threat of Federal defunding.
Stay home, stay safe, avoid all non-essential activities that involve any public contact, wear a mask at all times when in public, and ride it out as best you can. We have no other options left at this point.

If you've been "Doom Scrolling" late at night, and losing sleep as a result, consider getting this: The Ocushield is more than a screen protector, it’s a blue light smashing medical device

An important article regarding reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2, AKA COVID-19, AKA Coronavirus:
From Science Magazine, 26 June, 2020.
Page 1422: VIEWPOINT: COVID-19 / Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2
Masks and testing are necessary to combat asymptomatic spread in aerosols and droplets
Salient points:
  • "Increasing evidence for SARS-CoV-2 suggests the 6 feet CDC recommendation is likely not enough under many indoor conditions, where aerosols can remain airborne for hours, accumulate over time, and follow airflows over distances further than 6 feet (5, 10)."
  • "Assuming SARS-CoV-2 virions are contained in submicron aerosols, as is the case for influenza virus, a good comparison is exhaled cigarette smoke, which also contains submicron particles and will likely follow comparable flows and dilution patterns. The distance from a smoker at which one smells cigarette smoke indicates the distance in those surroundings at which one could inhale infectious aerosols."
  • "Evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2 is silently spreading in aerosols exhaled by highly contagious infected individuals with no symptoms. Owing to their smaller size, aerosols may lead to higher severity of COVID-19 because virus-containing aerosols penetrate more deeply into the lungs (10)"
  • "SARS-CoV-2 has been shown to replicate three times faster than SARS-CoV-1 and thus can rapidly spread to the pharynx, from which it can be shed before the innate immune response becomes activated and produces symptoms (6)."

The article begins on page 1422 of this issue (page 22 of the PDF document.)



July 8, 2020
US cases: 3,143,691 -- deaths: 134,677 -- death rate: 4.3%
World cases: 12,115,654 -- deaths: 550,487 -- death rate: 4.5%



As the testing increases worldwide, the apparent death rate is slowly dropping, from a worldwide high of 7% and a US high of 5.9%. Learning that the virus is somewhat less lethal than early cases indicated is good news, but the uncontrolled spread is bad news.

Trump asked over and over "Why can't we just let this 'wash over' the country?" He was told, "Millions of people would die." And at this point, it looks like Trump has delayed, obstructed, and trivialized long enough, and interfered with PPE long enough, that he will get his wish.

Without intervention, COVID-19 will indeed "Wash Over" America, leaving somewhere around 5 to 10 million Americans dead.

If we have a 100% infection rate and the current 4.3% mortality, it will be over 14 million dead. If we have a 70% infection rate and a much lower 3% mortality, it will be a "mere" 7 million.

And Republicans Want To Make Sure You Can't Sue Your Boss If You Get Sick.

How the actual experts are doing it: How Fauci and other experts deal with coronavirus risks in their everyday lives.
At a shockingly high rate, Brain problems are linked to even mild virus infections.
Well, duh: WHO says 'evidence emerging' airborne COVID-19 spread may be a threat indoors.

From a culture where face coverings are part of daily life:
No mask? No problem. No sanitation, either: Freedom Cafe... Where all the rules apply, or don't.
Modern American Literature: Mary Trump somehow manages to make Donald look even worse.


July 1, 2020
US cases: 2,751,119 -- deaths: 130,390 -- death rate: 4.7%
World cases: 10,689,623 -- deaths: 516,383 -- death rate: 4.8%

The video interview with Dr. Anne Schuchat: "COVID-19 Is Out Of Control In The United States."

Where Are Coronavirus Cases Getting Worse? Explore Risk Levels County By County

New sources of important information (now added to the sidebar):
It's starting to jump to other species: Dutch Minks Infected By COVID-19 — And Appear To Infect Humans

An emerging Influenza with very dangerous potential: A Swine Flu Strain With ‘Pandemic Potential’ Found in China

This is what happens when a country is ruled by medical ignorance, during a Global Pandemic:

Trump did nothing when he was briefed that Russia paid Bounties to Kill U.S. Troops - NYT

Wise words from a funny, shocking, infuriating guy: International Leadership Award Presented to Sacha Baron Cohen (video, worth watching)


June 26, 2020
US cases: 2,530,449 -- deaths: 127,118 -- death rate: 5.0%
World cases: 9,816,551 -- deaths: 491,183 -- death rate: 5.0%
Just as every single medical professional in the entire world predicted, the premature abandonment of precautions against COVID-19 in the USA has unleashed a fresh wave of infection, breaking all previous records for new cases and deaths.
Stay safe, stay home -- as much as possible -- and stay alive.

And in the midst of this: Obamacare Must 'Fall,' Trump Administration Tells Supreme Court
How to manage a pandemic, compared to how not to manage a pandemic:7-day average cases, EU vs US

Some science on why face masks work:
And we are still learning about the numbers:
If the total number of infections is ten to eighty times higher, that's good news in that it may be less lethal than first thought. Instead of being fifty times more deadly than the average influenza, it may be "merely" five times more deadly than the average influenza.

However, if this is true, the Bad News is that COVID-19 may be far more contagious than previously thought -- and it's already somewhere between R0 3.0 and R0 6.0.

Some more science, from the exceptional mind of David Brin: CONTRARY BRIN
  • Typical vaccine development normally takes about 16 years.
  • Poorly researched vaccine deployment can cause dreadful harm.
  • We have about 40% of the Neanderthal genome circulating in modern humans.
  • A list of fascinating Pandemic fiction, from the past.
A few more COVID-19 items of note:

On the protests against inequality:

We are being played:
Some fun items:
The Archaeology of Animal Domestication:


June 19,2020
US cases: 2,291,145 -- deaths: 121,308 -- death rate: 5.3%
World cases: 8,732,041 -- deaths: 461,436 -- death rate: 5.3%
Over eight million cases now.
I was looking up the cases about black men "found hanging" recently, and only one site had all three of them:
Three Black Men Found Hanging Spark Calls for Lynching Investigations

They also had an article entitled:
Not Just Tulsa: Five Other Race Massacres That Devastated Black America

Since then, the numbers have gotten even worse: 6 people of color have died in sudden string of hangings across nation. That led me to look up websites that are considered to be "Black News" sources, and I found a world that is completely hidden from view, as far as the standard US media is concerned.

Here are some sources of news and perspective that we should all be looking at, and reading, to see what it being left out of the "regular" news:
What happens when a police department is completely overhauled from the ground up:
C-19 news:
Beware "crowdsourcing" criminal investigations:
More Trumpish mayhem:
In some lighter news, here are three quite entertaining and interesting videos about the new crop of electric cars, from Smart, Honda, and VW:


June 14, 2020
US cases: 2,150,487 -- deaths: 117,591 -- death rate: 5.5%
World cases: 7,925,364 -- deaths: 433,423 -- death rate: 5.5
In the fight for our lives, against the most deadly pandemic of this generation, some states are doing better than others:



COVID-19 news:

So far we have famine, plagues, and now Locusts Are Swarming In Record Numbers In 2020.

An Important Article: Confessions of a Former Bastard Cop
"Understand: Police officers are part of the state monopoly on violence, and all police training reinforces this monopoly as a cornerstone of police work, a source of honor and pride. Many cops fantasize about getting to kill someone in the line of duty, egged on by others that have. One of my training officers told me about the time he shot and killed a mentally ill homeless man wielding a big stick. He bragged that he 'slept like a baby' that night. Official training teaches you how to be violent effectively and when you’re legally allowed to deploy that violence, but 'unofficial training' teaches you to desire violence, to expand the breadth of your violence without getting caught, and to erode your own compassion for desperate people so you can justify punitive violence against them."

So far there are over 323 reported incidents:
  • demandbetter: Tracking Police Brutality at the 2020 Protests

Protect yourself from the police and prosecutors who habitually lie:
Police violence, civil protest:

Trump conned him, and he owns up to it, like a man:

Modern Life:


June 9, 2020
US cases: 2,034,482 -- deaths: 113,567 -- death rate: 5.6%
World cases: 7,263,421 -- deaths: 411,186 -- death rate: 5.7%
  • Grim new milestones: the USA now passes two million cases, the world passes seven million.
  • US COVID-19 deaths are over 500 people per day.
  • The southern hemisphere: Brazil, 700k cases. Peru, 200k cases. Mexico, 120k cases.
An important article:
Overwhelmed in the crisis, medical professionals experienced exhaustion, loss and grief. And they showed compassion, and adaptability. Looking back at the "first wave" in one of New York's busy hospitals:
How Mount Sinai Brooklyn Survived Its Deadliest Spring.
In The News:
When the police are the rioters:
Building change:
Police rhetoric, reversed:
The history of America's Military, um, "Excellence":


June 6, 2020
US cases:1,981,044 -- deaths: 111,878 -- death rate: 5.6%
World cases: 6,931,100 -- deaths: 400,492 -- death rate: 5.8%
Is 2020 over yet?

Science:
The environment:
COVID-19 news:
Racist Police Violence:
COVID-19 & Police Violence, combined:
Sanity, by officials acting responsibly:
Why we should all be organ donors:


See the "Archives" for previous posts -- here's the most recent)
COVID-19 cases in the USA by date:
28 million: February 11 (9 days)
27 million: February 2 (7 days)
26 million: January 26 (5 days)
25 million: January 21 (5 days)
24 million: January 15 (4 days)
23 million: January 11 (4 days)
22 million: January 7 (4 days)
21 million: January 3 (4 days)
20 million: December 30 (6 days)
19 million: December 24 (5 days)
18 million: December 19 (4 days)
17 million: December 15 (5 days)
16 million: December 10 (5 days)
15 million: December 5 (4 days)
14 million: December 1 (6 days)
13 million: November 25 (6 days)
12 million: November 19 (6 days)
11 million: November 13 (6 days)
10 million: November 7 (11 days)
9 million: October 27 (16 days)
8 million: October 11 (22 days)
7 million: September 19 (24 days)
6 million: August 26 (20 days)
5 million: August 6 (16 days)
4 million: July 21 (15 days)
3 million: July 6 (29 days
2 million: June 7 (41 days)
1 million: April 27 (47 days)
1,248: March 11, 2020

SARS-CoV-2 death toll, per 50k, USA:
500k: February 16 (17 days)
450k: January 30 (15 days)
400k: January 15, 2021 (16 days)
350k: December 30 (19 days)
300k: December 11 (27 days)
250k: November 14 (60 days)
200k: September 15 (52 days)
150k: July 25 (64 days)
100k: May 22 (29 days)
50k: April 23 (29 days)
1,271 March 25, 2020

If your employer is not keeping  you safe, ask them why they are not following CDC  guidelines. Here's the complete document in PDF  format:
 CDC: Reopening Guidance
 Note, this the full version that the Trump Administration said "will never see the light of day."


A  glossary of COVID-19 terms

Symptoms:
Think you may have had it? Report it here: https://covidnearyou.org/#!/

Check daily: NPR

Research Wikipedia:

CDC says that mail and delivered packages are "probably safe" -- but to be 100% sure, let them sit for 72 hours before opening and handling.

Bake bread at home:

Make face masks:
My favorite one:
cloth.with pegs: surgical face mask
Adjust this for American size
(see the article 4/4/2020)
 Check your local  hospital to see what they need. Consider one for yourself to ease the hoarding of N95 masks.
 
Other good options for civilians: 
  • Use a Bandana (22" x 22") for a washable face  mask, and a second bandana as a washable cap.
  • Or, use a 48" x 48" piece of cotton for full  face and head coverage, wrapped as a Shemagh.

How to go to the grocery store:

  Don't get suckered. Look it up.

Think clearly:

Papa Vox Archives:
2020, January through May
2017 through 2019
 2016 -- 2015 -- 2014 -- 2013 -- 2012
Sept through Dec, 2011
 April through Aug, 2011
 Sept through March 2011
 
 Old and somewhat interesting posts,
stripped of their former political grousing:
2010  --  2009  --  2008  --  2007  --  2006


 David Brin's Blog
One of today's greatest SciFi authors. A rational, scientific approach to modern life and governmental policy -- what a radical concept!

Hacking yourself:
An experiment in the supposition that shoes are bad for you, with some reviews of various nearly-barefoot alternatives, known as "minimalist" shoes.

Educate yourself:

Dump Windows. Get LINUX / Ubuntu




 


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The Earth is Spherical.
5G doesn’t affect viruses.
Wear a Mask.
Q-Anon is a Russian Troll.
Vaccines Work.
Contrails are just water vapor.
You can’t Pray Away the Gay.
The Moon Landings were real.
Global Warming is real.
SARS-CoV-2 is real.
Lizard People are not real.


 The contents of this web page are merely opinion.  Harmless words.  Nothing more.