Papa Vox:
Archive: 2020 COVID-19 edition, January through May.
Papa Vox: Archive: 2020 COVID-19 edition, January through May. |
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May 29, 2020
US cases:1,778,067 -- deaths: 103,825 -- death rate: 5.8%The USA has been turned into a powder-keg by Trump, and he is gleefully lighting the fuse:
Meanwhile,
And the virus continues to spread and kill: We are the 1%: counties in the United States where 1% or more of the population has tested positive for COVID-19 (as of May 25) Can it be helped? Yes, of course it can -- and we know how: How Some Countries Brought New Coronavirus Cases Down To Nearly Zero. Sadly, nothing will be done by Trump. The good news: Coronavirus Antibody Testing Shows Lower Fatality Rate For Infection. The Bad News Corollary is that far more people were infected than previously thought. Get healthy, stay healthy:
May 26, 2020 Another Grim Milestone: Over 100k Deaths In The USA. US cases:1,717,677 -- deaths: 100,287 -- death rate: 5.8%An excellent article which covers a wide range of Covid-19 topics: Coronavirus Updates: A List of Good News and Bad News Check your sources before you believe a Tweet: Nearly Half Of Accounts Tweeting About Coronavirus Are Likely Bots. Trump's Base is now killing people for the Freedom to spread a deadly disease:
Noticing weird daily peaks and valleys, and wondering what's up? It's not the virus, it's how we collect and report the data: Four Basic Data Science Lessons Illustrated by COVID-19 Data Mark Zuckerberg will let you work at home -- but he'll pay you less if you live in a cheaper area: Facebook’s Plan to Tie Pay to Location Will Probably Fail But punishing people for being poor has worked out really well for Zuck-face, and Jeff Bezos, and The Waltons, and the rest of America's 0.000001871%: All 614 of America's Billionaires' Net Worth Increased During Pandemic As Millions Go Unemployed. So, how's your personal wealth been doing lately? The coming catastrophe for American Education -- steered by Betsey DeVoss: Coronavirus Is Creating A Financial Crisis For American Schools. Some items for a more civilized world:
May 20, 2020 US cases:1,578,733 -- deaths: 93,994 -- death rate: 5.9%In the USA, the number of active cases have continued to increase. Over a million people are currently infected in the USA today. The viral catastrophe in the Southern Hemisphere begins to gain momentum: Canada is not okay with Trump sending ~1,000 troops to Canada border. Despite FDA Caution, Trump Says He Is Taking Hydroxychloroquine. Of course he is. At least today he is. Tomorrow he may stop, and the day after, he may claim that it was all "fake news." But in this particular case, Trump's Narcissistic Personality Disorder may cause him some serious consequences: Hydroxychloroquine can kill you. Why has testing been such a disaster in America?
As as for what inadequate testing we have, the tests themselves are a bit off. FDA Cautions About Accuracy Of Widely Used Abbott Coronavirus Test. Bars fill up with thirsty patrons after Wisconsin court strikes down stay-at-home order. A quick look at The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them article will show you that being in an enclosed, crowded bar is about the most likely way to get you infected. COVID-19 news:
May 14, 2020 US cases:1,438,426 -- deaths: 85,699 -- death rate: 5.9%Rick Bright Testifies About Coronavirus: "The undeniable fact is there will be a resurgence of the COVID-19 this fall, greatly compounding the challenges of seasonal influenza and putting an unprecedented strain on our health care system. Without clear planning and implementation of the steps that I and other experts have outlined, 2020 will be darkest winter in modern history."- Rick Bright, former director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, removed from his position by Trump on April 20. Tragically, kids may be far more vulnerable than we had hoped: One in four children with severe COVID-19 develops organ failure. College is going to change, quickly and dramatically. The most prestigious schools will likely endure, even with enrollment dropping by a third, because they have massive waiting lists, filed with kids who will jump at the chance for MIT, Harvard, or Stanford, even if those hallowed campuses are closed, and their experience will be 100% remote learning. Lower level schools will see enrollment dry up, and they have little room to survive the tuition income loss. This coming fall, almost everyone will have to attend school online, and by the time COVID-19 is a thing of the past, physically attending on a college campus will be for the ultra-wealthy only: How Coronavirus Will Disrupt Future Colleges & Universities. May 12, 2020 US cases:1,406,807 -- deaths: 83,284 -- death rate: 5.9%About the figures above: you can probably more than double them: Here's Why The Coronavirus Death Toll Is Likely Under-reported. And it will get much worse: Projections Suggest Potential Late May COVID-19 Rebound - ScienceBlog Politics:
Good news:
May 10, 2020 US cases: 1,353,530 -- deaths: 80,351 -- death rate: 5.9%Over four million cases now. There is a standard fiction plot device which drives me nuts. The fictional idea is this: the very instant any crisis hits, people in America turn into rabid junkyard dogs, ripping each other's throats out for scraps of food. You'll see this in every post-apocalyptic movie or TV show ever filmed, and in every post-apocalyptic book ever written in the modern era. Things going bad = people turning into animals. It even crops up in small fictional disasters, and even little sitcom mishaps: trivial problem = mob violence. This is, however, not true, and I am convinced that people have come to believe a terrible, completely fictional lie about ourselves as a nation, and as a species. Remember every last bad crisis, and you'll also remember people pulling together, being incredibly generous with their time and money, and dropping everything to go help out, often at risk to themselves. When the going gets tough, we help each other, as Americans, and as humans. We are seeing this now, and we will see more of it as the sadly inevitable (and completely unnecessary) second wave of COVID-19 infections takes hold across the USA. I spotted this, and it seems like a decent idea: https://www.getkeysmart.com/products/cleankey And it also seems like $25 is a lot of money for such a simple tool. So I took a piece of 3/16" brass rod (which was sitting around in my shop) and I bent it thus:  It works really well, and it weighs 1.1 ounce (32 g.) It's very useful anywhere you have to open a public door, operate a public light switch, or push a public button. And it works on touch keypads. I made another one out of 1/8" bronze welding rod and it works just as well, at 0.5 oz (13 g.) The serendipitous utility of this tool comes not just from the mechanical use while avoiding touching public surfaces, but also from the high copper content of brass (copper + zinc) and bronze (copper + tin). Copper is powerfully anti-microbial. Medical COVID-19 news:
May 8, 2020 US cases: 1,314,295 -- deaths: 78,248 -- death rate: 5.9%After the USA went into lockdown, cases climbed steadily for a month solid -- then they plateaued at that high level. They have not decreased yet. They leveled off - which is excellent news. "Flattening the curve" worked. Without lockdown, we would be looking at a vastly more devastated country. Please keep in mind the fact that this increase in cases happened during lockdown. The initial exposure took an entire month to burn through the people already exposed. We went from 2,126 cases on March 13, and a lockdown that swept the country that day, to a half million cases in one month, and on to 1.3 million cases just three weeks later -- while we were still in lockdown. Let me repeat that: from 2,126 to 1.3 million in eight weeks -- while we were in lockdown. Halting lockdown will cause an immense increase in exposure, which will cause the current caseload to explode to far high levels. You will see the USA re-experiencing doubling of the cases every three days for a month solid -- exactly like before. Here's what 100% opening up will likely cause, in the USA alone, within a month:
Trump's logic regarding testing: Do as I say, not as I do.
Wearing a face mask now is considered to be a Political statement, made against Trump. I am afraid that we will soon start seeing Trump's supporters walking up to strangers, to rip face their masks off and spit in their faces. Already we are seeing increased violence against people trying to stay safe:
May 7, 2020 US cases: 1,287,493 -- deaths: 76,693 -- death rate: 5.9%Trump administration buries detailed CDC advice on reopening The CDC document that Trump doesn't want you to see: CDC Draft COVID-19 Reopening Guidance. I urge you to download this document in PDF and save it for personal reference. If your employer refuses to follow these guidelines, provide them with a copy and ask them why they are ignoring the CDC. May 6, 2020 US cases: 1,243,953 -- deaths: 72,841 -- death rate: 5.8%"The disease is not behaving as we expected": What the Coronavirus Models Can’t See.
Trump to US state Governors: "I want you to do me a favor." Other Pandemic news:
May 3, 2020 US cases: 1,185,167 -- deaths: 68,495 -- death rate: 5.8%And the protesting continues: While Trump obstructs:
And we are way off base comparing this to the flu: Remdesivir-Maker Gilead's Lobbying Hit New High In 1st Quarter, and it looks like they are gaining political traction -- in spite of the fact that their flagship anti-COVID-19 drug hasn't proven to be helpful. So, now were are moving on to more Plagues of Exodus? Many Colleges have finished the spring term, and administrators are considering how to manage the fall semester. I'm guessing it will remain mostly -- if not exclusively -- online. If so, the colleges themselves will lose the profit from the dorms, which is a death blow for many of them, unless they get subsidies. Staying safe with a school or college age kid is very challenging; most kids are not really equipped to contemplate their own mortality, much less the mortality of everyone around them, and the constant talk about young people being nearly immune to any danger from COVID-19 doesn't help -- and it's also not true. This is a very dangerous virus. It seems unlikely that genuine public safety will be arriving anytime soon. Knowing what we currently know, the entire world should, as much as possible, stay self-quarantined and patient, until we have ubiquitous testing, which can actually show us where the hot spots are, and where quarantine needs to hold. Sustaining that self-quarantine will only be possible in countries with a benevolent government, steeped in long-term planning, with a very socialist bent. It will take unstinting support of working class people, and support of the infrastructure that supports a humane quarantine. This hardly describes Trump. In America, far too many people are being subjected to a punishing "home gulag." It won't be frustration and bad hair that drives them into the streets; it will be eviction, starvation, and the cold, dry darkness of utility shutoffs. Even in the best case scenario, in places where the number of new cases drops to near zero, extremely cautious relaxing might take place, among low-risk individuals -- keeping in mind that this is a world where people travel, by car and by air, and a new outbreak will jump a thousand miles in one day, and stay hidden while it spreads and incubates. Relaxing WILL cause new outbreaks, and governments will have to be prepared to suffer the consequences. Relaxing and then cracking back down may be more damaging than just holding the course. The vaccine is still not going to arrive much before the initial 18-month estimate; nothing has changed that. Oh, certainly something could be rushed into place sooner, but I remember the debacle of the 1976 Swine Flu Vaccine. I knew a girl a in college who was completely paralyzed by Guillain-Barré Syndrome, as a possible result of the Swine Flu vaccine -- or as an equally possible result of the Swine Flu itself. It took her years to progress from an iron lung, to a wheelchair, to braces and crutches. So there are risks to a "fast-track" vaccine. A good vaccine will be a game change, but it must be a very good vaccine, widely and comprehensively tested, effective, very safe, and free for everyone. After this yet-to-be-developed vaccine has been administered to damn near everyone, we will need enough time for the immunity to build inside each individual (which takes a few weeks for most vaccines.) THEN we can start to return to a mingled life. And then there's the fact that, to date, there has never been a successful vaccine developed for any corona virus. So for now, in order to stay safe, we must stay sequestrated- if we can. If our employers will let us. If we can afford it. The question is, how long can we keep this up? The Trump Administration clearly can't keep it up. Trump's pressuring to boost his polls is pushing against a political fabric that is not merely worn thin: it's been deliberately sliced open in many places. To take the analogy one step further, that fabric has also had all of the seam threads pulled out. One good sneeze and the Emperor will be standing there stark naked, with zero restraint, zero oversight, and zero accountability. Opinion: A good friend recently expressed "faith in the robustness of the checks-and-balances democratic system." I share that faith, sometimes, but I also fear that the robustness of America is taking a terrible hit. The Democratic system of elections has been utterly broken in the case of Gerrymandering, and badly damaged by the most successful voter suppression since Jim Crow days. The essential groundwater of informed Democracy has been polluted by Fox News and a decades long relentless war against science itself -- a very successful attack, reaping a bumper crop of superstitious, gullible ignorance that is unparalleled in the industrialized world. The things that made our economy robust have been stripped to the bone, by profit taking for the 0.1%. The most profitable companies in the country have had every excess penny siphoned off, so that one single bad month has left the structure of the companies themselves standing there skinny, naked and quivering. The things that made the Government robust were methodically stripped away by Republican administrations, or by Republican legislators during Democratic administrations. Departments intended to protect and safeguard the public were defunded decades ago, flensed in favor of tax breaks for billionaires. The things that made hospitals robust were all sold off to increase profits to the maximum possible extent, and the things that made medicine itself robust were abandoned to make way for only the most profitable pharmaceuticals and referral procedures. Extra ICU bed space? Sell it!The economy of the US is teetering on the brink of another Great Depression. It was already terribly fragile; that's what decades of relentless and ruthless wealth stripping does to a country. The COVID-19 virus pushed us over the brink, in one month. It will take another New Deal to pull us back out -- and it will need to be a Green Deal. Going to war won't do it: that will just spread the virus into catastrophic 1918 proportions, and make the world hate us even more -- including our own allies. An oil boom won't do it: we already have a glut. Re-industrializing, for the most part, won't do it: we gave almost all of our capacity away to the countries with the lowest wages, and we'd be in a losing battle, competing directly against them. The only manufacturing capacity where the USA enjoys an advantage is in highly durable, well made, top quality, long-lasting products. In today's world, that is a niche market -- though a vitally important one. Right now, in the top ten fastest growing industries in the USA, nine of them range from fairly Green to quite Green. Two of them center around marijuana, three are high tech, one is Solar Power. Fracking stands alone as the boom & bust, rape and pillage holdout. May 1, 2020 US cases: 1,125,305 -- deaths: 65,540 -- death rate: 5.8%The Food Lines Have Already Started. If you check the stats day by day, you can see that, as the USA testing rates are improving, the mortality rate is increasing. At the beginning of April, the USA mortality rate was 1.9%. It is now 5.8%. As the US still has a pitifully inadequate per-capita testing rate, we can expect that number to change, and the likelihood is that it will parallel other parts of the world with higher per-capita test rates. The US mortality rate will probably turn out to be close to the 7% average World rate. In fact, only about half of the current unexpected spike in US mortality has been explained by the very limited COVID-19 testing, which can easily lead one to ask: is COVID-19 infecting and killing double the numbers that we are currently told? We won't know the answer to that unless testing is expanded by exponential factors. Significant undercount in U.S. coronavirus deaths. Right we are adding about 30,000 new cases per day in the USA -- as detected by what are still embarrassingly substandard testing rates. The graph of current (5/1/20) active infections in the USA looks like this:  One glance at that graph shows that we are not in a "downward trend," or "ready to reopen," or flattening the curve." We have not yet even reached the peak. We are still in the expanding infection phase of a lethal pandemic. And yet, many states are, today, pushing ahead with foolhardy re-opening plans. Tragically misinformed people are clamoring to be "liberated" from their currently uninfected status.
Before we can even begin to consider making rational decisions, Testing Is The Key. Meanwhile, we have several very serious problems rapidly brewing:
How fast is a vaccine coming? Not as fast as Trump is saying: And what happens when you rush a vaccine into use? By the way, "other" problems haven't gone away:
April 27, 2020 US cases: 1,002,900 -- deaths: 56,376 -- death rate: 5.6%About that pesky thing, natural selection, which results in amazing and unexpected adaptive traits. New traits just happen, as a result of frequent and inevitable genetic changes, in every single organism on the planet. Most new traits are not helpful, many are instantly fatal, many bring disadvantages, some are completely neutral. But some new traits can be, purely by chance, highly advantageous. Organisms that inherit these advantageous new traits get a big boost in surviveability and reproduction. Which bring us to the COVID-19 virus, which exhibits all sorts of new and unexpected traits:
In ten years time, this could, conceivably, reduce the world population by two thirds. Life expectancy could plummet back to 18th-century levels, with middle to late thirties being old age. This may well be one very stubborn medical problem, and difficult to bring under control. We will not beat this one by merely looking for it; we will have to test for it, nearly ubiquitously, and we will need a very good vaccine. And, just in case anyone was wondering, yes, it will change again. The emerging versions may be much milder, or as we saw in the Black Death and the 1918 Influenza Pandemic, it may become far more deadly. Does the stupid misinformation from Trump, FOX, and Rush, directly cause deaths and disasters? Yes, of course it does:
That lasted for all of two days, as Trump is incapable of passing up a microphone and a spotlight: Trump/ White House Coronavirus Task Force Briefing 5 PM EDT. Meanwhile, Trump's administration is stealing masks from the VA:
Push-back continues, now from both sides of the aisle:
April 25, 2020 US cases: 953,918 -- deaths: 53,858The world is closing in on three million cases, and the USA is closing in on one million cases. COVID-19 is currently the number one killer in the USA (graph link):  Daily new cases in the USA reached an all-time high today (graph link):  And yet, Republicans are still pushing to "reopen the economy" -- with a little help from their friends: The Extremists And Grifters Behind Many Of The Anti-Lockdown Protests. The perils of premature reopening:
The two biggest hopes are that:
With zero help from the Trump administration, Maryland Secures Half A Million Coronavirus Test Kits From South Korea. This, predictably, angered Trump, who devoted one of his daily tantrums to the subject. But, to cheer you up, here's An inspiring song about the trials of online teaching. And here's a doohicky that may actually be useful: CLEANKEY™ Antimicrobial Brass Hand Tool. This brings us to the section where we learn that, even overseas, there is ‘Sadness’ and Disbelief From a World Missing American Leadership -NYT. Americans are pretty sad and disbelieving, too. And it's no wonder: The Coronavirus Revealed America’s Failures. And we have a speaker of the House who simply thinks that we should let everything collapse: GOP Rep. Pete King Shreds 'Marie Antoinette' Mitch McConnell's Bankruptcy Plan. Trump is so gullible that he was recently conned by a Snake Oil salesman: Man peddling bleach as coronavirus 'cure' wrote to Trump this week. This led to the debacle of the Deranged Doofus In Chief saying people should be injecting disinfectants (brilliantly mimed here by Sarah Cooper.) Of course, this provoked some backlash. For one thing, shooting up Lysol will kill you. As will Clorox, Windex, Drano, PineSol, Mister Clean, Formula 409, Listerine, Easy-Off, Liquid Plumr, SoftScrub, rubbing alcohol and Dawn dish-washing soap. But Trump's followers have learned to believe anything he says, and so a whole bunch of national brand name household cleaner companies scrambled to try and keep gullible citizens from killing themselves by following their President's advice: Trump Disinfectant Comments Trigger Manufacturers to Warn People Against Injecting Themselves With Cleaning Products Medical professionals also had to take time away from treating patients, to try and explain the truth: Doctors dismantle Trump's virus treatment comments. And: Trump’s disinfectant and sunlight claims fact-checked. By the way, that completely unproven drug -- which Trump STILL keeps pushing -- is now proving to double the death rate for COVID-19 patients who take it:
Meanwhile, utilizing The Shock Doctrine (the method of ramming disastrous policies down the throats of people suffering from disaster) the GOP Quietly Pushes Through Long-Sought Priorities As Pandemic Rages. These policies will make climate change much worse, as a Climate-Driven Megadrought Is Emerging in Western U.S. And I am not kidding when I say that Trump is considering invading Iran, as an instant fix for his dismal polls: US-Iran war of words raises fresh fears of Gulf clash - BBC News We must remember that the current goal of enemy propaganda is very simple; sow chaos, discord and confusion. Russian and China do not care what we believe, as long as we are divided and arguing about it. Lies are mixed with truth to the point that every source of information must be vetted. You can not rely on social media: they are raking in billions in profits, by selling platforms for propagandists, with not the slightest care of the devastation caused. Learn to recognize propaganda:
April 21, 2020 US cases: 809,615 -- deaths: 44,623To enhance the safety margin, a Utah mom wears penis face mask so people keep their distance. But you can also get one with boobies or vaginas: PROJECT PENIS MASK. Face masks are still a hot topic, with new information on which fabrics work best. Velvet is a winner. "Tea Towel" fabric is excellent, and a double layer equals an N95. Bed sheet / pillowcase fabric and "shop towel" fabric are good. And I've seen many designs that have an envelope pocket in the fabric mask to insert a layer of coffee filter, or a piece of household vacuum cleaner HEPA filter, which is also "N95 good" -- however, these restrict breathing so much that people will often just give up using them. The whole face mask thing is tragically ridiculous; it should never have been a subject anyone in America need bother discussing, aside from the idea of Peace-Corps style "Appropriate Technology," like how to make a village cook-stove out of clay and discarded tin cans, or an irrigation pump out of discarded truck tires. Home-sewn face masks are a topic for trying to help out some poverty-stricken, distant, third world country, someplace with a failed government and a bumbling, inept, corrupt dictator, oppressing a pathetic, uneducated population suffering from a terrible pandemic. The obvious solution would be to just ship them N95 masks -- unless their warlord officials are so corrupt that they steal them, or withhold them to punish his political opposition, in which case we might perhaps be sewing these in a circle of compassionate church ladies, to send away in Red Cross boxes, along with M&Ms, transistor radios, toothbrushes, children's clothes, and bars of soap. Because any civilized, industrialized major world power would -- of course -- have all the medical-grade protective equipment they could ever possibly need, even in an outbreak, and the industrial capacity to keep up with any increased demand, without any delays of more than a day or two. Right? With home exercise also being a hot topic, I saw someone post, "I'll bet you're not making fun of Peloton now, are you? Yes, I'm still making fun of Peloton. They so richly deserve it. After their tone-deaf Christmas exercise bike commercial, where a painfully self-doubting and already rail-thin wife compulsively exercises her way to spousal approval, Ryan Reynolds hired the same actress to play in a gin commercial that was deeply hilarious, in a perfectly adult way. Current COVID-19 news:
April 19, 2020 US cases: 756,856 -- deaths: 40,131 -- Death rate for USA cases: 5.3% Learn from history:
As I said, Trump and the GOP are starting the push for sacrificing poor people's lives, in order to preserve record corporate profits. They are getting some resistance:
And there's far more looming on the horizon: Africa May See At Least 300,000 COVID-19 Deaths, U.N. Warns. Update: that could be up to 3 million deaths in Africa. One useful mundane item: iPhones use San Francisco Fonts, and they are also wonderfully clear and readable on computer screens. One silly mundane item: Oreo introduces kawaii cookies for spring. Opinion: Panic buying is a subject worthy of some real study. For weeks, stores all over America have been wiped out within minutes of shelving. It is common to see shelves with no flour, yeast, baking powder, TP, hand sanitizer, Kleenex, paper towels, bottled water, meat, or beer -- except for pallets of Crorona going stale. Some things are slowly improving - except for TP and hand sanitizer, but problems persist. April 17, 2020 US cases: 685,541 -- deaths: 35,500Prepare yourselves for a premature ending of the quarantine, while the pandemic still burns. We will all soon be advised -- by the US Government -- to get back to work and save the rich. Trump -- fresh off his staggeringly stupid cut of WHO Funding for complete bullshit reasons -- has been gearing up for this, for weeks, along with the rest of the GOP:
Yes, now tens of thousands more will die: Emergency Declared In Japanese Prefecture Hit By 2nd Wave Of Coronavirus Infections. And Conservatives simply don't care.
And the Government is exporting our most undesirable COVBID-19 cases: Official Alleges The U.S. Has Deported Many COVID-19-Positive Migrants To Guatemala. But we really can't blame them for believing Russian propaganda -- or can we? Russia's health disinformation campaign against U.S. has been going on for over 10 years. Meanwhile, a small percentage of working-class people got a trivial handout, while hospitals are still going without masks and ventilators, and health care workers get paid squat. But we are going to be "Open For Business!" Is there push back from this lethal folly? Yes, there is:
April 15, 2020 US cases: 618,325 -- deaths: 26,290In the midst of this pandemic, with cases still skyrocketing, Trump Says He Will Halt WHO Funding. April 14, 2020 US cases: 609,368 -- deaths: 25,671I was recently corresponding with someone who is planting their garden, and I learned that their local nursery takes phone orders, and assigns a pick up time. Orders are put on numbered pallets that are placed about 30 feet apart. One minute before your scheduled pick-up time they put the order out. You have 5 minutes to pick it up or it will be taken back. It sounds to me like that nursery has their act together. Many people are planting a "victory garden" and it's an excellent idea. Unfortunately, some counties are ruling that nurseries are non-essential and shutting them down. The argument could reasonably be made that they are essential, and those nurseries that are going to curbside pickup only are showing excellent adaptation and acting responsibly. This is probably one of those teetering issues where a few thousand emails and one local news article on TV could swing the decision, and implement a beneficial policy. On the other hand, gun stores are considered "essential," along with ice cream stores. I can only hope that, over the next few months and years, time, people will be taking a long hard look at "essential businesses" and completely reevaluating how they should be taxed, subsidized, encouraged, and regulated. This will not be the last epidemic in America, not by a long shot, or the last pandemic either. Just take a quick look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics and you'll see twenty four notable outbreaks in the last decade alone. Coupled with the increase in natural / unnatural disasters, like fires, floods, droughts and hurricanes, it's high time we all went onto a footing that will work better to respond to wide-scale stressed circumstances and emergencies that can rapidly endanger millions of people. We should stop throwing trillions of dollars at wealthy banks and investment houses that are "too big to fail" and start supporting the essential local hospitals, clinics and businesses -- the ones that actually keep us alive -- because they are truly far "too important to fail." April 13, 2020 US cases: 583,870 -- deaths: 23,485The "60 minutes" show last night, about NYC doctors and nurses, was heartbreaking. Concerning the wide variety of symptoms: Recently there's been articles pointing out that the rate of hospitalizations for "flu-like" illness has paralleled COVID-19, instead of the usual January peak and spring decrease. The theory is that COVID-19 may have a far wider variety of immunological responses and symptoms than was thought. We now know that the rate of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases is 30% to 50%, which is excellent for the mortality rate, but horrifying for the contagion rate. If the current "flu-like" cases are actually also COVID-19, that will bring the mortality rate down even more -- great -- but it also shows that the spread is nearly twice as fast as suspected. That could make the R0 close to 6, which puts it in smallpox and Polio territory. It would be nice if the nation could get some tests available so we had a clue as to what is actually going on. It would also be nice to know what exactly makes it so lethal to just some people. It is suspected that the high rate of smoking in Italy is a big factor, as it seems to be among Chinese men, and the air pollution in China is terrible. That pollution may explain why industrial cities are hit so hard, including Denver, LA, Phoenix, Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, and SLC, where temperature inversions frequently cause pollution to build up. Mexico City may be decimated by this, for that very reason. News:
Falling down on the job:
Anyway, to make a long story even longer: This is all about the rate of contagion -- the R0 -- multiplied by the mortality rate. The problem is that those are abstract numbers, and numbers are all too easy to brush away with a different, completely irrelevant, unrelated number. Death is all around us. The fact that Stalin killed more people than Hitler didn't make Hitler trivial, any less evil, or any less dangerous. The fact that flu is exponentially more dangerous than global terrorism seems to make no difference at all in the stunning level of fear over a few mostly inept suicide bombers, or the trillions spent on aircraft carriers and long range bombers, to fight them, mostly ineptly. Fox News -- and Trump -- keep saying that "this really isn't all that bad, because flu kills more than COVID-19." True, flu is extremely dangerous, and another very bad flu pandemic is inevitably coming, make no mistake. And it is true that flu kills on average more people per year (about 60k in America) than COVID-19 has -- so far. And There's An Influenza Vaccine, Dammit. However, two weeks ago, CVOVID-19 had killed 2,246 Americans. One week ago, it was 8,344 Americans. As of today, it reached 23,485 Americans. That's over 14,000 Americas dead in one week. In two weeks, the death rate increased by ten times. All of the growth graphs are still pointing up at a very steep angle; this has not peaked, plateaued, lessened, or paused. Also, the flu season lasts for about eight months. If COVID-19 runs for eight months here -- a distinct possibility -- we're looking at a death toll somewhere around 200,000 to 500,000 Americans -- and that's if we ALL flatten the curve by rigorous self-sequester, and STAY THERE. Flu has an average R0 1.3; COVID-19 has an R0 3, possibly up to R0 6. R0 1.2 is a potential epidemic. R0 1.6 is a potential pandemic. Now, "R0 3" is an abstract number, until you do the math: 1 x 3, x3, x3, x3, x3, x3, x3, x3, x3, x3 = 59,049. One case of flu will, in ten generations of reproduction, result in 109 cases. One case of COVID-19 will, in ten generations of reproduction, result in 59,049 cases -- with R0 3. If it's actually R0 6, the result is 60,466,176 cases. Sixty. Million. That R0 number is a very, very big deal. Exponential math is heartless. The mortality rate is also a big deal: flu averages 0.1% mortality. COVID-19 averages 4% in the US, 8% in Europe. It's over 20% for people over 80. Even at the lower mortality rate, COVID-19 is forty times more lethal than flu. If we are very lucky, it may turn out that COVID-19 was merely 20 times more lethal than flu. This isn't apples and oranges. It's apples and hand grenades. A failure in leadership is just going to make it all much, much worse, for months to come. The tests are still being fumbled and bungled, and so will the vaccine -- if we ever get one. There's never been a single successful vaccine against a corona virus. And -- as mentioned below, unless tests and vaccines are 100% free, for everyone, including undocumented people, this will never end. Every psychologist knows how destructive Narcissistic Personality Disorder is to a family. Now we are seeing how destructive is it to a nation. Thoughts on a possible "second wave" of infections: I think we can probably count on this not going away smoothly after only one outbreak. With up to 50% being asymptotic, it's treacherous, and it's extremely contagious. While some diseases do seem to simply "burn them selves out," certainly not all do. The Plague came back again and again -- three disastrous pandemics, and over sixty other outbreaks, in fact. So has Ebola, Marburg, Cholera, Small pox, Polio, Anthrax, Measles, Pertussis, Typhus, Typhoid fever, Yellow fever, Dengue fever, Zika, and hundreds of various influenza epidemics. Plus there are endemic parasites in poor populations that have been ignored for centuries. If the self-isolation relaxes, yes, there will be a second wave, and it could be just as bad or worse, after a one to two week silent incubation period. A premature relaxation of social distancing is tragically inevitable, and already planned by the Trump White House. And there is the problem of it migrating during the shift in the seasons to the southern hemisphere -- where there is widespread deep poverty and dense, large populations lacking basic hygiene and medicine. Then it can migrate back north in the fall. This has happened many times before, and it happened with the Spanish Flu. We will have almost no idea how widespread the pandemic is until we have nearly universal testing -- for free. It has to be free, and it has to be without regard to income, age, employment status, immigration status, social status, skin color, or religion, and everyone has to completely believe that it's free and with no strings attached. And the vaccine -- when it arrives, if it arrives, in a year or so -- has to be reliable, highly effective, free from onerous side effects, and ubiquitously distributed, for free, to everyone. This will simply never happen under Trump. You think he will allow free testing of undocumented immigrants? Free vaccines for welfare inner city minorities? In deeply Democratic strongholds? It's far too contagious with a far too high asymptomatic carrier rate to just go away by itself. Be prepared for the long haul. With Biden in the White House, we could see real progress by next spring. But we'll will have to pull off an election held in pandemic conditions, with voting by mail reserved only for the most reliably Republican districts, and highly organized voter suppression for the opposition. Democratic districts will be held to long lines, drastically reduced and prematurely closing polling places, open and blatant voter intimidation, and a fair chance of dying for their country, just to vote. I wish I was making this up, but look at Wisconsin, last week. Voter attrition blessed and enforced by the US Supreme Court, aimed exclusively at Democrats. In the Republican primary, Trump is running unopposed, remember? Still, Biden's got a good shot -- if Democrats show up. If Trump gets reelected, people will be talking about waiting for the "unproductive" and "expensive" vulnerable to die off -- good riddance -- and waiting for natural herd immunity to win, insuring survival of the fittest. And I wish I was making this up, too, but multiple editorials have already appeared, advocating exactly this. The capitalist ideal is a workforce accustomed to abuse, tolerant of attrition by death, and unfazed by literal decimation. Just like it was for the first hundred years of the industrial age. I know, that's a very grim outlook. April 9, 2020 US cases: 464,689 -- deaths: 16,548 From BBC Newsnight presenter Emily Maitlis: The language around Covid-19 has sometimes felt trite and misleading. You do not survive the illness through fortitude and strength of character, whatever the Prime Minister's colleagues will tell us. Updates:
April 7, 2020 US cases: 384,421 -- deaths: 12,157If you think you may have had COVID-19, please report it here: https://covidnearyou.org/#!/ Very good news: Happily, an antibody test is now being released. Prepare yourselves for the long haul. It could take a long time to reach the point of safety, possibly as long as twelve to eighteen months. Life may return to "normal" more quickly, but don't count on it. The hard truth is that the continued danger from this particular virus will not abate until we have a very reliable vaccine, one with a very high percentage of efficacy and very low side-effects. We will have to wait until the vast majority of the population have received it. After getting a vaccine, we have to wait weeks for immunity to develop. We will need ubiquitous testing. So, to prevent a ghastly death toll, this mode of staying sequestered must be held until it is safe. Safe can be defined as "No new cases in the last three weeks." This will only be a valid metric if easy, fast testing is available everywhere, for free. That means the tests will have to be 100% subsidized by the US government, and distributed everywhere, to everyone, rich or poor, white or brown, citizen or undocumented, no strings attached, and with excellent efficiency. As long as Trump is president, good luck with that idea -- it will simply not happen. Sadly, it's a sure thing that Trump will bungle this -- it's tragically guaranteed. The instant the curve of death starts to decline, Trump will abandon the shutdown. He's already said this is coming. Renewed public mingling will start a fresh epidemic spike -- after a silent incubation period. And a new spike will take another two or three months to bring under control, with another 20,000 deaths in the US. And we have multiple time bombs ticking south of the border; Mexico City has an "official" population of over 23 million, and an unofficial one of God Only Knows. COVID-19 will go through that population like wildfire. Ciudad Neza, the former slum east of the city, was able to dramatically improve (with very little government help) so it isn't as squalid as it was in past decades, but it's still a very dense and impoverished population of over a million people. The entire country is dotted with dense slums of dirt poor people. Brazil will be catastrophic: you can't social distance in a favela. And then there's Africa. Any slum is at terrible risk. So are prisons -- it's spreading fast, and America has the worst prison problem on the planet. The Southern Hemisphere is now heading into the winter season, when communicable diseases spike. The cost of idiot conspiracy theories getting spread: U.K. Cellphone Towers Ablaze As Conspiracy Theories Link 5G Networks To COVID-19. On the one hand, the CDC says Use Cloth Face Coverings to Help Slow Spread. And on the other hand, idiotic hospital administrators are worried about appearances: Doctors Say Hospitals Are Stopping Them From Wearing Masks. Don't get this virus. It is no fun: I Just Got Out Of The COVID-19 ICU. Here's How I Made It Through. It can be brutal: What it's like to experience the dreaded COVID-19 "cytokine storm". I was very happy to hear that J.K. Rowling Says She's 'Fully Recovered' After Suffering From COVID-19 Symptoms. She stayed at home, tended by her physician husband, who told her to watch this video: Doctor at Queens Hospital in the UK advises on potential lifesaving corona virus breathing technique. She said that this therapy helped her a great deal. And, she just worked with Warner Bros to launch a new website, to encourage kids to read: Bringing Hogwarts to You. For diversion, I hear good things about this game, if you like playing games on a handheld device: Monument Valley 2: an iOS game from ustwo games There are now bread making links in the sidebar. If it reduces your grocery store trips, it's worth it. And it also tastes way better than grocery store bread. The Doofus In Chief:
April 4, 2020 US cases: 306,507 -- deaths: 8,344The CDC says we are all going to need face masks: Special camera shows cloud of micro droplets spewing out of people when they "talk loudly." Even Trump admits we are going to need face masks -- although he says, "I don’t think I’m going to be doing it." Make your own face masks: I've now tried four different patterns. Three of them are a hassle to sew, and frankly not very comfortable to wear, either. One pattern is great, and it's by far the fastest one to sew. It also fits better than any of the others, it is adjustable for nearly any face shape and size, and it is extremely comfortable. This one: http://clothwithpegs.blogspot.com/2009/07/current-issue-face-mask.html The instructions are long and needlessly complex. And the size is for tiny Asian person. I sized it up for my large American head and face, and it fits me and at least one other person perfectly: Raw Fabric: a rectangle 10 1/2" long x 8 3/4" wide. The finished mask should be 8" long (ear to ear) and 7 1/4" wide (nose to chin). The page author pleats the ends. I just sew a tube on each end, run 36" long tie cords through (soft fabric tape or felt) and pull them like a drawstring to gather the fabric. This also makes it more adjustable for width. This mask has one layer of fabric. Advantages: faster and cheaper to make, softer and far better fit on the face, less air restriction so that wearers are not as likely to become frustrated annoyed and just give up wearing it, and it packs down into a tiny square that you can easily stuff it into a hip pocket. Disadvantages to one layer: none. The increase in filtering efficiency between one layer and two layers is 1% to 2%. Choose a good fabric, something fairly densely woven, like quality bed sheets or pillowcases, or good t-shirt cotton fabric, and you'll be fine. The fabric to go for if you have the option is "tea towels" which are sort of hard to find in the US. They are the best at filtering, and doubling them does increase efficiency by 14%, enough to match genuine surgical masks. If you don't have access to a sewing machine or can't sew, there are no-sew alternatives, which actually work pretty well: Easy ways to make DIY face coverings, following the CDC's latest guidance. Meanwhile, Jared Kushner has stared hoarding all the masks: Trump Administration Alters National Stockpile Website To Cover Kushner Claims. As a result, medical grade N95 masks are getting even HARDER to buy for states and hospitals. Open bidding wars are doubling and tripling prices -- and the Feds are outbidding everyone, including American hospitals and US state emergency management teams. In state’s intense chase for protective equipment, coronavirus isn’t the only rival — the feds are, too. Plus, the Feds are confiscating shipments of masks, gowns and other PPE that were ordered by states and hospitals:State governors are taking to smuggling PPE to get around the feds. This was especially hard on Massachusetts: Patriots plane brings N95 masks from China to Massachusetts. Life and society: Make Bread: Cutting back the workforce in time of Pandemic: We're gonna have to fire Dave. April 2, 2020 US cases: 240,511 -- deaths: 5,810Some landmarks today: confirmed world cases over one million. The US will be over a quarter million by tonight. Sadly, these numbers are from cases that have been confirmed only by testing, not by symptom diagnosis. I am now hearing from people who are quite sure they have had the virus, and their symptoms certainly match the current criteria. However, none of them have been tested, because their doctors told them that testing was only available for people sick enough to require hospitalization. I do not know if this is true nationwide, but it is clear that the rate of testing is still far, far too little to give us any idea of what's actually happening, right now. Unless, that is, you are wealthy or politically important. Then you can get all the tests you want. In any case, the likelihood is that the ACTUAL number of cases out there is probably jaw-dropping, nightmare-inducing, and appallingly high. Medical updates: No, there is not a vaccine "just around the corner" and it's not coming soon. It's still a matter of 12 to 18 months. Just accept that for now and sit tight. But there is some good news, and while it's not instant or magical, it's happening: With record-setting speed, vaccine makers take their first shots at the new coronavirus. And there's other treatments being evaluated: These drugs don’t target the coronavirus—they target us. And in spite of Trump, Ventilator Manufacturers Forge Ahead Even Without Government Orders. You'd think that something could be done, and it could -- if only. Defense Production Act Has Been Used Routinely, but Not With Coronavirus - NYT Tragically, and horrifyingly, The Trump administration won't re-open enrollment for Healthcare.gov and the Affordable Care Act. Face masks: It would appear that the The CDC Is Reconsidering Its Guidance on face masks, and these may soon be recommended for any public contact, even distanced, especially in a grocery store.
March 31, 2020 US cases: 176,518 -- deaths: 3,431So, how's it going out there? Well, there's some bad, and some good. The bad:
Steven Kassapidis, an intensive care unit doctor in [New York] city, told the Guardian last week that “9/11 was nothing compared to this.” Current conditions are “Hell. Biblical,” he continued. With regard to 9/11, he said, “We were waiting for patients to come who never came, okay? Now, they just keep coming.”The good: In some states, it looks like the hospitals will be able to cope, more or less: COVID-19 Hospital Resource ProjectionsThe face mask issue is not going away, and it won't for many months, thanks to Trump's bungling. Here's an alternative pattern for sewing them at home: cloth.with pegs. There is now a face mask section in the sidebar. Some additional information:
Some stuff to lighten the heart:
March 29, 2020 US cases: 125,266 -- deaths: 2,246 What we are up against in the face mask and critical medical supply debacle: I watched for decades as corporate overlords shipped critical infrastructure overseas, to exploit cheap labor and become exponentially more wealthy. And I worried. Now we see that just one little detail -- almost all of our medical grade face masks are made in China -- makes us terribly vulnerable. It will cause deaths. The World Needs Masks. China Makes Them — But Has Been Hoarding Them (NYT). And, just to complicate things, a quote from a discussion of manufacturing sources: "One brand you should definitely avoid: 救救マスク. It pretends to be a Japanese brand, but the masks are manufactured in China (Xiantao in Hubei, which is one of the cities in lockdown, BTW). Worse, the masks are produced in dirty factories and are undisinfected. They are adulterated with low quality materials. Medical information and production date are made up."Are all Chinese factories that bad? No, of course not. How do you tell the difference? It's impossible for us, as US citizens, to know. That is the manufacturing environment that now holds the safety of US medical workers in their hands. We just have trust what we are told -- by the people that caused this mess to begin with. Masks and virus barriers are not a simple affair: Effectiveness of precautions against droplets and contact in prevention of nosocomial transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) - The Lancet It's getting very bad in New York. Coronavirus in New York & NYC: Latest Updates. There is no reason to believe that there's something special about New York. It will get bad across much of the USA in the coming weeks and months. Thank God we do have some brilliant national leadership. In Germany. We could, as always, learn from the past: Gunnison, Colorado: the town that dodged the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. Politico asked 34 big thinkers to predict how the coronapocalypse will permanently change our world. And we can hope that some of the most entrenched and damaging policies in America may be abandoned, in an uncommon burst of common sense. (Link reposted from below.) Don't get conned: Fact-Checking COVID-19 (Snopes). Did the President of the United States Tell Governors Seeking Ventilators That "Favors Are a Two-Way Street"? Why, yes. Yes, he did. And it's just an example of how America Is Trapped in Trump’s Blind Spot. Take the time to cook for yourself. Make it tasty. And watch one of the most charming and delightful cooks on the planet: March 27, 2020 US cases: 93,440 World cases: 579,892I've moved the information sites worth checking daily over to the sidebar, at the right of your screen. On the home-sewn face masks, I've edited the former article below. I still think they are of some value, but frankly you can probably do just as well with standard cotton bandanas. Standard bandana: 22" x 22". Fold your bandana into a triangle, tie it around your face like an Old West bandit, and tuck the lower edge into your collar. It provides the same "two layers of tight weave cotton" protection that a sewn face mask provides, it's frankly more comfortable, being infinitely adjustable, it has a lower air restriction due to the larger surface area, and it's far easier to wash. Take your second bandana, fold it into a triangle, wrap it around your forehead and drape it over the top of your head, tie it in back. This provides excellent coverage for your head and hair (airborne mucus droplets settle downward, which is why you need this.) Quick, perfectly comfy, adjustable, and easy to wash. A full kerchief (27" x 27") gives you a little more fabric and coverage, and perhaps easier management for longer or curly hair, and colder weather. A neckerchief (32" x 32") looks good on a Boy Scout uniform, but doesn't have any advantages. Cut a 48" x 48" piece of the same dense-weave cotton you would use for a bandana or a face mask, and it gives you the option of using it as a full face and head covering all in one, plus it certainly makes a social and / or fashion statement, depending on the fabric. This is styled after a Keffiyeh or a Shemagh. (Edit: a real Keffiyeh / Shemagh is made with a very open weave of cotton, which is designed to have lots of air voids for enhanced ventilation. This is great for staying cool in the desert, but useless for filtering contaminated droplets and viruses.) A Shemagh is typically 47" x 47" up to 51" x 51", and often worn by US service people in desert environments, in olive drab / desert / camo colors. Get one of these, and trust me, you'll look fabulous. (A Buff is also an excellent option, and they function beautifully for all sorts of outdoor wear purposes. The "headband" size is big enough to use as a face mask.) A book that will give you perspective: A Distant Mirror And additional symptom to consider, if you are worried: Doctors Notice Loss Of Smell And Taste Among Some COVID-19 Patients. Sadly, the USA is still a third-world country when it comes to testing: "Testing is central." How South Korea Reined In Coronavirus Without Shutting Everything Down. "The aggressive efforts by Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and South Korea to investigate and isolate every possible infection is exactly what the World Health Organization has been calling for since January." 'We Are At War,' WHO Head Says, Warning Millions Could Die From COVID-19. "Many of your countries have imposed drastic social and economic restrictions, shutting schools and businesses, and asking people to stay at home. These measures will take some of the heat out of the epidemic, but they will not extinguish it. March 25, 2020 From Stanford University: "Heating N95 masks in a regular kitchen oven at 70şC / 158şF for 30 minutes will efficiently sterilize them for reuse." Some basic information, curated and accurate:
And it's killing people; Man dead, wife in hospital after ingesting what they thought was a drug touted by Trump. The wackos are all chiming in: Down the rabbit hole with the Covid-19 conspiracy theorists. And so it begins: It's better for the Rich if Old and Poor people just go ahead and die.
Humor: There's no need to overreact! Not humor: Exclusive: Inside The Military's Top Secret Plans If Coronavirus Cripples the Government It's a little thing, but it's nice: CBS All Access makes Star Trek: Picard free to non-subscribers. March 24, 2020 How contagious is COVID-19? The average contagion rate for standard flu is 1.4. This means that, on average, if you get it, you will pass it on to 1.4 people, and they will pass it on to 1.4 people, and so on.
COVID-19 has a average contagion rate of 3. If you get it, you will pass it on to three people, and they will each pass it on to three people, and so on.
March 22, 2020 A historical perspective, from the Introduction to The Decameron, regarding the year 1348: "Thirteen hundred and forty-eight years had passed since the fruitful Incarnation of the Son of God, when there came into the noble city of Florence, the most beautiful of all Italian cities, a deadly pestilence, which, either because of the operations of the heavenly bodies, or because of the just wrath of God mandating punishment for our iniquitous ways, several years earlier had originated in the Orient, where it destroyed countless lives, scarcely resting in one place before it moved to the next, and turning westward its strength grew monstrously. No human wisdom or foresight had any value..."Could the Corona virus get that bad? Yes, it could. There is a movement to sew face-masks at home:
I made a large size one as a test, and it's gigantic. I'll try the small next. How to go to the grocery store:
Helpful links:
March 17, 2020 -- the COVID-19 / Corona virus crisis The background, from Johns Hopkins: On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization was informed of an outbreak of “pneumonia of unknown cause” detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China – the seventh-largest city in China with 11 million residents. It took a while for people to notice. First off, the websites you should be looking at:
And then, the world changed. February 19, 2020 Science and Tech:
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Back To Papa Vox Main Page If your employer is not keeping you safe, ask them why they are not following CDC guidelines. Here's the complete document in PDF format: CDC: Reopening Guidance Note, this the full version that the Trump Administration said "will never see the light of day." A glossary of COVID-19 terms Symptoms: Think you may have had it? Report it here: https://covidnearyou.org/#!/ Check daily: The most reliable source of daily news: Research Wikipedia: CDC says that mail and delivered packages are "probably safe" -- but to be 100% sure, let them sit for 72 hours before opening and handling. Harvard says the virus can live on cardboard and paper for two days, and plastic for three days. Bake bread at home: Make face masks: My favorite one: cloth.with pegs: surgical face mask Adjust this for American size (see the article 4/4/2020) Check your local hospital to
see what they need. Consider one for yourself to
ease the hoarding of N95 masks.
Other
good options for civilians:
How to go
to the grocery store:
Don't be suckered. Look it up. Learn them. Know them. Papa Vox Archives: January through May, 2020 2017 through 2019 2016 -- 2015 -- 2014 -- 2013 -- 2012 Sept through Dec, 2011 April through Aug, 2011 Sept through March 2011 Old and somewhat interesting posts, stripped of their former political grousing: 2010 -- 2009 -- 2008 -- 2007 -- 2006 David Brin's Blog
One of today's greatest SciFi authors. A rational,
scientific approach to modern life and governmental
policy -- what a radical concept!
Educate yourself:Dump Windows. Get LINUX / Ubuntu   READ CAREFULLY.
The Earth is Spherical. 5G doesn’t affect viruses. Wear a Mask. Q-Anon is a Russian Troll. Vaccines Work. Chemtrails are just water vapor. You can’t Pray Away the Gay. The Moon Landings were real. Global Warming is real. SARS-CoV-2 is real. Lizard People are not real. |
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